{"id":48431,"date":"2023-11-10T14:16:18","date_gmt":"2023-11-10T11:16:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/?post_type=longreads&p=48431"},"modified":"2023-11-10T14:16:18","modified_gmt":"2023-11-10T11:16:18","slug":"minsk-sees-sco-as-counterweight-to-russia","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/48431\/","title":{"rendered":"Minsk sees SCO as counterweight to Russia"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\n\n \"\"\n
\n \n
\n (pexels.com \/ Mahda Ehlers <\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Prime Minister Raman Ha\u0142o<\/strong>\u016d\u010danka expressed hope that Belarus will participate in the next meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) as a full member.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka pursues improved ties with China as Belarus seeks membership of the SCO, where China calls the shots. However, Minsk is expecting too much.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Two countries have different approaches<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka sees China as a counterweight to Russia and an ideological and economic partner. But Beijing was put off by Minsk’s political isolation by the European Union and the United States, its involvement in the Russian war against Ukraine, and sanctions. The migration crisis at the border with the EU has harmed Belarus’ reputation, and Minsk sees its membership in the SCO as a rare opportunity to repair it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Minsk\u2019s overtures to SCO<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The SCO is not a new priority for \u0141uka\u0161enka. Since 2010, Minsk has been trying to strengthen ties with Beijing by supporting this organization perceived as China’s debut as a global player. For the first time, China launched its own regional grouping to reach out deeper into Eurasia, inevitably colliding head-on with Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Minsk has long been looking for ways to diversify its exports, and China seemed a good opportunity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Beijing has never denounced Minsk for undemocratic elections, has not imposed sanctions, and looked a promising market. Although the deficit has widened as trade rose since 2010, state media and pro-government pundits continue to tout China as a lucrative partner for Belarus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Launched in 2013, China\u2019s Belt and Road Initiative has increased Beijing\u2019s influence in post-Soviet countries. Since the goal of the initiative was to develop, diversify, and reshape infrastructure with Beijing at the center, its northwestern periphery — Central Asia, the Caucasus and Eastern Europe — came to the fore.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That is why Beijing was interested in closer ties with Belarus. In 2015, the East European country was given observer status in the SCO, and Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Minsk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At that time, Belarus was hit by an economic crisis triggered by Western sanctions against Russia and the subsequent fall of the Russian ruble. Minsk slashed three zeros from its currency amid high inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Minsk desperately sought new markets for its goods and opportunities to spur economic growth. At that time, Belarus became an observer at the SCO and strongly supported the Belt and Road Initiative.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka always cozies up to China when external conditions for trade or his own political position deteriorate. Not surprisingly, he made overtures to China after the West had not recognized the 2020 election results, condemned violence and imposed sanctions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Great Stone Industrial Park near Minsk was trumpeted as a flagship Belarusian-Chinese project. However, the partners had different visions of its purpose. Beijing saw it primarily as a logistics hub for Chinese industrial products, while Minsk saw it as a high-tech hub.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The underlying problem of different perceptions was attributed to several factors: the gap between expected and achieved results, conflicts of interest and \u0141uka\u0161enka’s perception of the Chinese model as a Soviet-style centrally-planned economy, while Chinese also perceived Belarusian managers as “Soviet.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Minsk can no longer act as China\u2019s major logistical hub due to the Russian war in Ukraine and Western sanctions, but \u0141uka\u0161enka still seeks closer ties with China as an economic and ideological partner and a possible counterweight to Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Belarusian ruler not invited to Beijing<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In July 2022, SCO Secretary General Zhang Ming said that Belarus had applied for membership. The move was seen as a way for Minsk to recapture China’s attention. \u0141uka\u0161enka was invited to the SCO summit in Samarkand, held in September 2022, to launch an official application process. He met with Xi for the first time after the COVID-19 pandemic, political crisis and the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka paid an official visit to Beijing from February 28 to March 2. In July in New Delhi, Belarus signed a memorandum on its commitment to join the SCO. The admission process is not expected to be completed before the next summit scheduled for the summer of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Belarus is expected to accede to 22 international SCO treaties in November, according to statements from the House of Representatives. The SCO countries would then have to ratify the memorandum to finalize the process.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The SCO summit in New Delhi was held online, so \u0141uka\u0161enka could not meet with Xi or the leaders of India, Pakistan and Iran on the sidelines.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Surprisingly, the Belarusian leader was not invited to the third Belt and Road Forum, which was recently held in Beijing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Coincidence or not, Xi has not met with \u0141uka\u0161enka since the deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus, although exchanges took place at the level of prime ministers and defense ministers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Wide deficit, Chinese transit at risk<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A “breakthrough” would be a free trade agreement with China. Officials discussed its preparation in Samarkand and Beijing, but the international situation has changed since then.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In addition to the political isolation, war and sanctions, the process of implementing the 28 Belarusian-Russian Union State integration programs has gained pace. The programs are seen as a tool of Russia’s gradual takeover of Belarus in critical areas of state management, such as taxes, customs, roads, etc. Therefore, Minsk’s commitments to Russia and China may collide. The collision may delay the free trade deal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Belarusian propaganda boasts of successes in trade with China. However, a substantial growth \u2013 by $5.8 billion – occurred in 2021. In 2022, figures did not change significantly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This year trade is growing, but so is Belarus\u2019 deficit. According to the Chinese ambassador in Minsk, Xie Xiaoyun, exports from Belarus to China rose by more than 65 percent in January-August to $1.99 billion, while exports from China to Belarus increased by almost 119 percent to $3.85 billion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As a trading partner, China cannot replace the EU for Belarus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moreover, new risks have emerged for Chinese transits, mainly in connection with EU neighbors\u2019 threat to close the border with Belarus. The pressure on Minsk from Poland, Lithuania and Latvia in late August might have alarmed Beijing. Belarus has become less attractive as a transport corridor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Minsk’s inflated expectations<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At the SCO Council meeting in Bishkek in late October, Belarus’ Prime Minister Ha\u0142o\u016d\u010danka suggested holding a transport and logistics forum, thus exposing Minsk\u2019s main problem. Speaking about potash fertilizers exports, he called for a statement on “the inadmissibility of imposing sanctions.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Whereas before Ha\u0142o\u016d\u010danka used to say that sanctions did not work, now he says that sanctions harm everyone. Given that SCO countries, especially Kazakhstan, try to avoid problems with the sanctions, the prime minister\u2019s proposal did not meet with enthusiasm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Minsk’s expectations for receiving SCO assistance, such as loans or investments in major economic projects, are also unjustified. Kazakh President Kasym-Jomart Tokayev let his frustration with the SCO come through at the July summit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Finally, the SCO is not a political-military alliance that could give \u0141uka\u0161enka some security guarantees.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He can only use the grouping as a platform for meetings, but if conferences are held online, it will be pretty useless.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Minsk is trying its best to become a member of the SCO as soon as possible, hoping to have some influence on Asian heavyweights such as China and India, increase exports and assuage Beijing\u2019s\u00a0 concerns over transits. But recent meetings and developments suggest that the accession process may be difficult.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Prime Minister Raman Ha\u0142o\u016d\u010danka expressed hope that Belarus will participate in the next meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) as a full member. Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka pursues improved ties with China as Belarus seeks membership of the SCO, where China calls the shots. However, Minsk is expecting too much. Two countries have different approaches \u0141uka\u0161enka […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":24,"featured_media":47961,"template":"","rubric":[22],"class_list":["post-48431","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nMinsk sees SCO as counterweight to Russia | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Prime Minister Raman Ha\u0142o\u016d\u010danka expressed hope that Belarus will participate in the next meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) as a full\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/48431\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Minsk sees SCO as counterweight to Russia | Pozirk\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Prime Minister Raman Ha\u0142o\u016d\u010danka expressed hope that Belarus will participate in the next meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) as a full\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/48431\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Pozirk\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pozirkonline\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/2kitay_pexels_Magda-Ehlers_2846034.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1440\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"600\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@Pozirk_online\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"6 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"NewsArticle\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/48431\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/48431\/\"},\"headline\":\"Minsk sees SCO as counterweight to Russia\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-11-10T11:16:18+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/48431\/\"},\"wordCount\":1239,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/48431\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/2kitay_pexels_Magda-Ehlers_2846034.jpg\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/48431\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/48431\/\",\"name\":\"Minsk sees SCO as counterweight to Russia | Pozirk\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/48431\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/48431\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/2kitay_pexels_Magda-Ehlers_2846034.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-11-10T11:16:18+00:00\",\"description\":\"Prime Minister Raman Ha\u0142o\u016d\u010danka expressed hope that Belarus will participate in the next meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) as a full\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/48431\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/48431\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/48431\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/2kitay_pexels_Magda-Ehlers_2846034.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/2kitay_pexels_Magda-Ehlers_2846034.jpg\",\"width\":1440,\"height\":600},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/48431\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Minsk sees SCO as counterweight to Russia\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/\",\"name\":\"Pozirk\",\"description\":\"\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/#organization\",\"name\":\"Pozirk\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/cropped-Logo_color_512.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/cropped-Logo_color_512.png\",\"width\":512,\"height\":512,\"caption\":\"Pozirk\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\"},\"sameAs\":[\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pozirkonline\/\",\"https:\/\/x.com\/Pozirk_online\"]}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Minsk sees SCO as counterweight to Russia | Pozirk","description":"Prime Minister Raman Ha\u0142o\u016d\u010danka expressed hope that Belarus will participate in the next meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) as a full","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/48431\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Minsk sees SCO as counterweight to Russia | Pozirk","og_description":"Prime Minister Raman Ha\u0142o\u016d\u010danka expressed hope that Belarus will participate in the next meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) as a full","og_url":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/48431\/","og_site_name":"Pozirk","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pozirkonline\/","og_image":[{"width":1440,"height":600,"url":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/2kitay_pexels_Magda-Ehlers_2846034.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_site":"@Pozirk_online","twitter_misc":{"Est. reading time":"6 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/48431\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/48431\/"},"headline":"Minsk sees SCO as counterweight to Russia","datePublished":"2023-11-10T11:16:18+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/48431\/"},"wordCount":1239,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/48431\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/2kitay_pexels_Magda-Ehlers_2846034.jpg","inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/48431\/","url":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/48431\/","name":"Minsk sees SCO as counterweight to Russia | Pozirk","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/48431\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/48431\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/2kitay_pexels_Magda-Ehlers_2846034.jpg","datePublished":"2023-11-10T11:16:18+00:00","description":"Prime Minister Raman Ha\u0142o\u016d\u010danka expressed hope that Belarus will participate in the next meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) as a full","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/48431\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/48431\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/48431\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/2kitay_pexels_Magda-Ehlers_2846034.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/2kitay_pexels_Magda-Ehlers_2846034.jpg","width":1440,"height":600},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/48431\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Minsk sees SCO as counterweight to Russia"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/#website","url":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/","name":"Pozirk","description":"","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/#organization","name":"Pozirk","url":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/cropped-Logo_color_512.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/cropped-Logo_color_512.png","width":512,"height":512,"caption":"Pozirk"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pozirkonline\/","https:\/\/x.com\/Pozirk_online"]}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/longreads\/48431","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/longreads"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/longreads"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/24"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47961"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48431"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"rubric","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/rubric?post=48431"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}