{"id":50727,"date":"2023-11-22T13:09:18","date_gmt":"2023-11-22T10:09:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/?post_type=longreads&p=50727"},"modified":"2023-11-22T13:09:20","modified_gmt":"2023-11-22T10:09:20","slug":"lukasenka-opposition-short-of-exciting-new-messages","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/50727\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0141uka\u0161enka, opposition short of exciting new messages"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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\n (pexels.com \/ Anton H)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

It is easy to criticize Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka and his cronies for the lack of new ideas. The Belarusian ruler has reverted to populism, positioning himself as a fighter against corruption and a wise guardian of peace in Belarus. Apparently, this will be his message during the 2024 and 2025 elections. In fact, it is an old worn-out record. His opposition also reprises old themes, and seems to have a problem finding new ones.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

On November 20, \u0141uka\u0161enka signed an edict to schedule the parliamentary and local elections for February 25. His government appoints elected officials based on its lists, simulating the vote. However, until 2020, political opponents could at least legally run in elections, even though they were fraudulent from their point of view.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka recently said that he is not going to play “democracy games” with the West, apparently assuming that Belarusians do not need any democracy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The opposition parties have been disbanded, and dissent has been crushed. Critics are jailed for giving likes to social media posts, so voters can hardly dare to go to the polls if their views differ from the government’s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alternative election stalled<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At the Warsaw conference in August, opposition politicians dismissed the upcoming elections as a sham and suggested that Belarusians should better elect members of the opposition Coordination Council.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, preparations for the alternative poll are making slow progress. The current Coordination Council has a mandate until February 8, 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Under its statute, it should have adopted election rules before November 8. However, it pushed back the deadline by a month to have time to discuss several proposals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It has not made the proposals public. Moreover, voters do not seem to be really interested in them, and even if they went to the council\u2019s website, they would not get through the thicket of red tape.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Clearly, an alternative election is impossible in Belarus, at least in the usual way, with ballots and ballot boxes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The opposition failed in its attempt to stage an alternative presidential election in 1999 because the security services simply arrested ex-Prime Minister Michai\u0142 \u010cihir, an opposition bidder. The second candidate, Zianon Pa\u017aniak, had already been living abroad for almost three years by the time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The head of the opposition\u2019s election commission, Vik\u00adtar Han\u010dar, was kidnapped and murdered a few months later.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 1999, opposition activists went door-to-door with ballot boxes. Now this is impossible, so the only viable option is to vote online.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pavie\u0142 Libier and Novaja Bie\u0142aru\u015b are ready to develop all the voting tools necessary, opposition leader \u015aviat\u0142ana Cichano\u016dskaja said in October.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Libier, an architect of the Novaja Bie\u0142aru\u015b and Ho\u0142as voting platforms, will probably say that online voting will be safe. It will probably be safe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Belarusians are scared of the law enforcers, who have demonstrated their skills in using digital surveillance to detect and arrest opposition supporters, including participants in the Pieramoha Plan. The law enforcers have a knack to seeding fear and discrediting opponents’ initiatives.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cMeet you at the KGB\u201d<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In a recent incident, a senior Committee for State Security (KGB) officer interrupted a security seminar for Belarusians in Warsaw to intimidate its participants. “Meet you at the KGB Investigation Department,” Kanstancin By\u010dak, the department\u2019s deputy chief, told the participants via Zoom. After that major security breach, activists in Belarus will think twice before voting in an opposition election.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Obviously, only those based abroad can run for the Coordination Council without the risk of going straight to jail. In Belarus, candidates could run only anonymously, but the election of no-names is ridiculous in itself.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In fact, Belarusians are invited to vote for exiled opposition politicians, whose agenda substantially diverges from that of people living in the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Messages are important<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is still unknown how opposition will organize the election, whether people will vote for lists or individuals, or it will be a mixed system. In any case, messages are important.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Most Belarusians are not enthusiastic about the opposition’s appeals for tighter sanctions or an international arrest warrant for \u0141uka\u0161enka.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is already obvious that Minsk and Moscow are perfectly able to circumvent the sanctions, and the West cannot significantly step up the pressure. Besides, the Belarusian ruler, officials and law enforcers would be the last to starve from the sanctions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The most obvious effect of these restrictions for Belarus is its catastrophic dependence on Russia. Belarusians also do not expect an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court (ICC) to force \u0141uka\u0161enka to stop reprisals and release political prisoners, quite the contrary.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

True, the opposition has an attractive positive message in the declared goal to seek European Union membership for Belarus, but at the moment it lacks practical meaning. It is absolutely unclear how the opposition can realistically tear Belarus out of the Russian claws. Sanctions, if anything, are only pushing Belarus toward Russia. If the ICC issues an arrest warrant for \u0141uka\u0161enka, it will only bind him and Putin together.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

New Belarus, how to get there?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The exiled opposition clearly has limited influence on the regime and what it going on in Belarus. They also have little influence on international players who make decisions on sanctions. The question is to what extent their rhetoric correlates with the needs of the people in Belarus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Indeed, the government has a pathetic vision for the future: work harder, pray and thank the ruler that there is no war yet. Minsk relies on Moscow’s support and a big stick.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Opponents have a nice vision for the future, but no convincing solutions as to how to get there. This question is probably much more relevant for them than future reforms. Meanwhile, many Belarusians – both in the country and abroad – distance themselves from politics and think about survival here and now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hope has faded that a window of opportunity will open after Ukraine\u2019s thrashing of Russia. The war has reached a stalemate, as Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Valeriy Zaluzhnyy has recently admitted. The election for the Coordination Council will be held anyway as required by the statute. It is clear that the regime opponents cannot jump above the belt and generate a miraculous strategy for a quick victory over the dictatorship. But opposition leaders and civil society activists at least need realistic and relevant messages to excite voters in Belarus.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

It is easy to criticize Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka and his cronies for the lack of new ideas. The Belarusian ruler has reverted to populism, positioning himself as a fighter against corruption and a wise guardian of peace in Belarus. Apparently, this will be his message during the 2024 and 2025 elections. In fact, it is an […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":50338,"template":"","rubric":[14,30,22],"class_list":["post-50727","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","rubric-politics","rubric-security","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n\u0141uka\u0161enka, opposition short of exciting new messages | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"It is easy to criticize Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka and his cronies for the lack of new ideas. 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