{"id":58924,"date":"2024-01-03T16:57:24","date_gmt":"2024-01-03T13:57:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/?post_type=longreads&p=58924"},"modified":"2024-01-04T14:07:49","modified_gmt":"2024-01-04T11:07:49","slug":"minsk-turns-its-back-on-europe-shifts-energies","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/58924\/","title":{"rendered":"Minsk turns its back on Europe, shifts energies"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The Russian-Ukrainian war and Minsk\u2019s continuing crackdown on dissent had a major impact on Belarus\u2019 foreign policy in 2023.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n \"\"\n
\n
\n\n Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka arriving in Zimbabwe for a state visit on January 30, 2023\n <\/div>\n \n
\n (Belarusian leader's website)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Estrangement with the West for survival <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1. Minsk\u2019s foreign policy priority last year was to fuel tension with the West to achieve the following objectives:

– Survival<\/strong>. A besieged fortress state is necessary for Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka’s political survival. It helps rally supporters, officials and law enforcers, militarize public life, and legitimize his campaign of terror against opponents. A besieged fortress cannot exist without external enemies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 – Muscle flexing, constant pressure on neighboring countries.<\/strong> \u0141uka\u0161enka is afraid of appearing weak and is convinced that the more he threatens his opponents, the better his chances of defeating them or forcing them to make concessions.

He believes that negotiating from a position of strength is the best way of dealing with external opponents. For this reason, he allowed Russia to deploy nuclear weapons to Belarus, engineered a migration crisis at the EU border, and blackmailed the West by threatening to unleash Wagner mercenaries on EU.

– Revenge. <\/strong>He seeksto retaliate, especially against the neighboring countries, for supporting the Belarusian opposition, not recognizing him as president and imposing economic sanctions.

– A message to Russia. <\/strong>His message to Moscow is that Belarus needs to protect the western border of the Union State and therefore cannot send its troops to fight alongside with Russian forces against Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

– Alleged threats from NATO<\/strong>. \u0141uka\u0161enka keeps saying that NATO is looking to attack Belarus, and accuses Poland of harboring plans to capture the Hrodna region or western Belarus. It seems that Minsk has come to believe its own propaganda narratives and considers nuclear weapons as a guarantee of its security.

The objective of keeping up tension with the West has been successfully accomplished.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

War<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

2. Russia’s war against Ukraine forced Minsk to build a line of defense against threats associated with it. The three main objectives were as follows:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

– Minimum direct involvement<\/strong>. This mission has been successfully accomplished. In 2023, Russian troops did not attack Ukraine from Belarusian territory and left Belarus.

– Threat from<\/strong> Belarusian volunteers fighting alongside Ukrainian forces<\/strong>. The regime takes the threat very seriously and even tried to organize people’s militia units.

– Peace effort.<\/strong> \u0141uka\u0161enka has cast himself as a peacemaker, calling for an end to hostilities and offering his services as a mediator in peace talks. That effort has failed completely. His image of a peacemaker was clouded by his support for Russia in the political, diplomatic and military spheres.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka deliberately ties his fate to that of Putin<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

3. In relations with Russia, Minsk’s priority was to secure new loans and subsidies and additional mechanisms of assistance, for example, in logistics. In 2023, trade between the allies soared and Belarusian debts were rescheduled, so the objective was achieved successfully.

Moscow has not made any overt attempts to encroach on Belarus\u2019 sovereignty. Commenting on the statement by EU security chief Josep Borrell that Russia would not stop in Ukraine, \u0141uka\u0161enka said on December 25: “Can we deal with another war? We have to deal with this one. Especially now, when the situation is favorable. And not only for us.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other words, he has unconsciously tied his fate to that of Russian President Vladimir Putin. That is why he sees Belarus and Russia, himself and the Russian president, as one. The personal alliance between the two has turned into a close union between the states.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


4. Supporting Russia’s plans to create an anti-Western coalition of the Global South with anti-colonial narratives.

At all international forums, \u0141uka\u0161enka encouraged others to join the anti-Western alliance of Belarus and Russia. However, given the low political weight of Belarus, his efforts seemed out of place and made him look as Putin’s mouthpiece.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Overcoming pariah complex<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

5. Minsk has been struggling to find new markets for Belarusian goods. \u0141uka\u0161enka, Prime Minister Raman Ha\u0142o\u016d\u010danka and Foreign Minister Siarhiej Alejnik made many visits abroad, but their efforts have largely failed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The share of the countries they visited, except for China, has not increased, while trade with the EU and Ukraine has plummeted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

6. To overcome the “pariah complex,” Minsk has tried to prove that most countries recognize \u0141uka\u0161enka as president. For the first time in history, the Belarusian ruler visited China and Africa twice during the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The visits provided plenty of fodder for PR and propaganda. However, its message was primarily intended for the domestic audience.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The meetings with visiting Russian governors, as well as with the leader of Abkhazia, Aslan Bzhania, and the head of the Russian-occupied Donetsk region, Denis Pushilin, did little to improve \u0141uka\u0161enka’s standing among Belarusian officials and his fans. That is why, Minsk has made an extra effort to improve his image. It has had a limited success.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What new year<\/strong> brings<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The war in Ukraine is a gamechanger in the region and Belarus.

If the balance of forces on the battlefield remains largely the same and the West does not cut its support for Ukraine, Minsk would stand by Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Belarusian defense enterprises would receive Russian loans to expand war-related production. The Belarusian army would remain at bay, and Russia would not use Belarusian territory to attack Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Minsk would continue to beef up security at its border with Ukraine to keep Kyiv on its toes and divert Ukrainian troops from the front line.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Russian-Ukrainian war and Minsk\u2019s continuing crackdown on dissent had a major impact on Belarus\u2019 foreign policy in 2023. Estrangement with the West for survival  1. Minsk\u2019s foreign policy priority last year was to fuel tension with the West to achieve the following objectives: – Survival. A besieged fortress state is necessary for Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka’s […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":20,"featured_media":58735,"template":"","rubric":[14,22],"class_list":["post-58924","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","rubric-politics","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nMinsk turns its back on Europe, shifts energies | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The Russian-Ukrainian war and Minsk\u2019s continuing crackdown on dissent had a major impact on Belarus\u2019 foreign policy in 2023. 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