{"id":61967,"date":"2024-01-19T14:17:24","date_gmt":"2024-01-19T11:17:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/?post_type=longreads&p=61967"},"modified":"2024-01-19T14:17:25","modified_gmt":"2024-01-19T11:17:25","slug":"security-concept-generals-got-it-wrong-lukasenka-is-biggest-threat","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/61967\/","title":{"rendered":"Security concept: generals got it wrong. \u0141uka\u0161enka is biggest threat"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Safeguarding independence is a strategic national interest of Belarus, says a new draft national security concept discussed at the Security Council meeting in Minsk on January 16. Belarus\u2019 sovereignty is under a lot of strain because of the Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka government\u2019s exposure to Russian influence.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\n (pexels.com \/ Pixabay)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Security Council also discussed a draft military doctrine. Commenting on both documents, \u0141uka\u0161enka noted that “many of the estimates and forecasts contained in them are already coming true.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He cited the Middle East crisis as an example, calling it a terrible humanitarian catastrophe orchestrated by the West. He lamented that “we have returned to the time when military force was the main argument in international relations. As usual, he stopped short of making any comments on the Russian war against Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Imitation game<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Alaksandar Valfovi\u010d, chairman of the Security Council, said that his agency has organized about 70 panel discussions of the concept in the last 12 months, including some among military officers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Presumably, General Valfovi\u010d has not received any meaningful feedback from the military who are supposed to take orders, not debate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2021, the government imitated a discussion of a new constitution in a similar way. Before 2020, it still tolerated some pluralism, even inviting pundits and critics to television talk shows.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2020, \u0141uka\u0161enka’s law enforcers violently crushed a peaceful uprising and purged the country of dissent. The government established discussion forums to imitate democracy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Strangling the third sector<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The authors have taken at least one bigoted proposal into consideration. Valfovi\u010d said that religious groups, the Belarusian Women’s Union, Belarusian National Youth Union and citizens suggested that the new concept emphasize the need to protect and preserve the traditional Belarusian family as a union between a woman and a man by birth. That clause was supposed to guard Belarus against ideologically alien same-sex marriages legalized in 35 countries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some provisions have been updated to bring the concept in line with new restrictive civil society laws.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The government has shut down at least 1,509 nonprofits since the 2020 presidential election, according to Lawtrend, a human rights organization.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Courts have eliminated primarily associations suspected of disloyalty. For example, the bird protection NGO, Achova Ptu\u0161ak Ba\u0107ka\u016d\u0161\u010dyny, was accused of “extremist activities aimed at destabilizing the sociopolitical situation in the country under the guise of volunteering to save birds.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Democratic countries have a well-developed civil society, while \u0141uka\u0161enka has trampled on the third sector. “Let’s take out all the scoundrels,” he said in 2021, and they really did.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now his government is cultivating plastic flowers of government-organized NGOs (GONGOs) on the burnt out field.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

GONGOs will have 400 out of 1200 seats on the All-Belarusian People’s Assembly, which is to rubberstamp the new national security concept and military doctrine. No doubt, the hand-picked delegates will vote unanimously to approve these documents in April.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nice on paper, but grim reality<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

For those who do not know the Belarusian context, many provisions of the draft may seem fine. However, it looks good only on paper, while in practice the government does many things exactly the opposite way.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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For example, the strategic national interests include “the preservation of distinct identity, the strengthening of spiritual and moral values of the Belarusian people, the development of the modern cultural environment of the country and the protection of historical memory.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Officials see identity as straw souvenirs and ethnic costumes, while suppressing critical cultural figures or forcing them into exile. In media and culture, Minsk has opened the gates to the “Russian world.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The concept also focuses on “economic growth\u201d and economic competitiveness. In fact, the economy has been mostly stagnating for more than a decade, and experts expect the trend to continue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The International Monetary Fund forecasts that it will grow by 1.3 percent in 2024 and only 0.6 percent in 2025. Belarus\u2019 growth rates are expected to be lower than in most neighboring countries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The paper considers international sanctions against Belarus a threat to national security. Undoubtedly, they hit the economy, slowing down growth. Has not the government asked for it by carrying out reprisals against political opponents, forcing the Ryanair flight to land in Minsk, engineering attacks by illegal immigrants on the EU borders, and supporting the Russian war against Ukraine?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It turns out that the regime itself is generating or aggravating the threats listed in the document.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Considering the extent of human rights abuse, “ensuring conditions for the realization of constitutional rights and freedoms of a citizen and a human being” appears completely out of place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Elections are a state-managed ritual, and those who disagree with the government’s policies are dehumanized. Even those behind bars are supposed to have rights, but political prisoners are literally dying in jails, deprived of any means of communication with the outside world.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another national interest is defined as “the involvement of compatriots and their organizations abroad in achieving the goals of sustainable development of the Republic of Belarus.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In reality, \u0141uka\u0161enka’s Decree No. 278 deprived Belarusians of the opportunity to obtain new passports at Belarusian embassies and consulates abroad and sell their property in Belarus. Besides, these people are unable to vote in elections.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economy: all eggs in one basket<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Interestingly, the concept retains such a relic clause as “the diversification of exports of goods and services, balancing foreign trade and ensuring foreign economic security.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Indeed, nearly a decade ago the government tried to reduce Belarus\u2019 heavy dependence on Russia. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2015, amid uncertainty over energy prices and trade disputes with Moscow, Minsk came up with the “three-thirds” plan to achieve roughly equal proportions of trade with Russia, the EU and the rest of the world.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

After the 2020 postelection protests, \u0141uka\u0161enka gave up on the idea and scrambled back firmly into the Russian orbit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russia already accounts for the lion’s share of Belarus’ sales. Minsk relies on Russian infrastructure for the rest of its exports, which also ties the country to its big brother.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Contrary to the concept, Belarusian officials, especially Ambassador to Russia D\u017amitryj Krutoj boast of the expansion of Russia’s share in foreign trade and use of its ports as if it were a great achievement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nukes mean trouble<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The draft concept sounds the alarm that “more countries, primarily in Europe, want to possess nuclear weapons or deploy them on their territory.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

General Valfovi\u010d noted that Warsaw had asked the United States to deploy nuclear weapons in Poland. “It is clear for what purpose, given their [NATO states’] militaristic nature and aggressive statements towards our country,” he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki made that proposal in response to Russia’s decision to site nuclear weapons in Belarus. Russian tactical nuclear weapons have already been delivered, and \u0141uka\u0161enka has repeatedly threatened the West to use them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He sees the nuclear arsenal as a security guarantee and boasts of preserving Soviet-era strategic nuclear weapons sites.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Embroiled in the Kremlin’s nuclear blackmail, Belarus has become a target for a retaliatory or preventive strikes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The regime has put all its eggs in one basket and is selling Belarus\u2019 sovereignty piece by piece for the sake of self-preservation. It is an accomplice in Russia’s war against Ukraine and is dragging the nation into the claws of the empire, which poses the biggest threat to Belarus’ national security.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Safeguarding independence is a strategic national interest of Belarus, says a new draft national security concept discussed at the Security Council meeting in Minsk on January 16. Belarus\u2019 sovereignty is under a lot of strain because of the Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka government\u2019s exposure to Russian influence. The Security Council also discussed a draft military doctrine. Commenting […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":61318,"template":"","rubric":[22],"class_list":["post-61967","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nSecurity concept: generals got it wrong. \u0141uka\u0161enka is biggest threat | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Safeguarding independence is a strategic national interest of Belarus, says a new draft national security concept discussed at the Security Council\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/61967\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Security concept: generals got it wrong. \u0141uka\u0161enka is biggest threat | Pozirk\" \/>\n<meta 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