{"id":64254,"date":"2024-01-31T19:13:19","date_gmt":"2024-01-31T16:13:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/?post_type=longreads&p=64254"},"modified":"2024-01-31T19:25:35","modified_gmt":"2024-01-31T16:25:35","slug":"lukasenka-system-likely-to-crumble-after-he-goes","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/64254\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0141uka\u0161enka system likely to crumble after he goes"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Lack of power transition mechanisms often plunges countries in crisis when dictators fall.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n \"\"\n
\n \n
\n (pxhere.com)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

On January 25, while appointing a new health minister, Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka previewed major personnel changes in the government:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“We are making replacements, staff rotations in all ministries and departments. This is a common practice. In the run-up to parliamentary and presidential elections, we always renew the government and local authorities, regional executive committees and the Minsk City Executive Committee.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“We renew them so that people could see who we are going to work with, when they vote in this or that election, and decide whether they should trust this team. I have been doing this for a long time. This time is no exception. . . . Such actions on my part \u2013 personnel reshuffles are the prerogative of the president \u2013 will continue in the near future, until the presidential election.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Preparations for presidential election<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka linked the planned reshuffle to the election cycle, which includes the February 25 parliamentary and local polls and the 2025 presidential race. He has already started his re-election campaign a year and a half before the vote.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Under the Constitution, the old cabinet resigns and a new president forms a new government after the presidential election. It was always like that before 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the run-up to the 2020 presidential election, \u0141uka\u0161enka appointed Raman Ha\u0142o\u016d\u010danka as prime minister to replace Siarhiej Rumas, apparently because he was insufficiently loyal from the ruler\u2019s point of view. It was an emergency measure as the country was on the verge of a revolution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now \u0141uka\u0161enka does not face any serious political threats, but he still wants to play it safe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sierhiajenka to be replaced, Ha\u0142o\u016d\u010danka probably too<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

One important upcoming change is already known. Ihar Sierhiajenka is running for parliament, and therefore he will soon step down as head of \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s administration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

General Sierhiajenka, a former first deputy chairman of the Committee for State Security (KGB), was appointed as head of the administration in December 2019, eight months before the presidential poll. His main task was to oversee a smooth election, but things went wrong and he failed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

During the postelection mass protests, \u0141uka\u0161enka urgently replaced the chiefs of all law enforcement agencies to stay afloat. In those circumstances, it was even strange that Sierhiajenka lasted so long after the epic failure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka is now looking for a new chief of staff who can run his 2025 campaign without a hitch.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ha\u0142o\u016d\u010danka is likely to be sacked. Last year, \u0141uka\u0161enka accused him publicly eight times of poor performance, threatening dismissal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In August, for example, the Belarusian ruler ordered Ha\u0142o\u016d\u010danka recalled from his vacation amid the university enrollment campaign, although the prime minister had nothing to do with it because he normally deals with economic issues.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In December, \u0141uka\u0161enka lambasted the cabinet for high cucumber prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Change of generations, but no intention to step down<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

“There is a change of generations, and we should make no mistake,” the Belarusian ruler said on January 26. He added, referring to the All-Belarusian People’s Assembly, “This body should be on guard during the transition period, during the change of generations, it should see what’s going on.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka, 69, is not planning to retire. He seems to recognize the problem of continuity after retirement, which will happen sooner or later at least for biological reasons.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Personalist dictatorships usually lack power transfer mechanisms to reduce an inevitable crisis of legitimacy to manageable proportions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moreover, the entire system of power institutions and mechanisms is tailored to one person. It can function only as long as it receives orders from \u0141uka\u0161enka, suppressing all other political initiatives.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In this model, the head of state is irreplaceable, while his failure would most likely destroy the system.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hostage of the system<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This setup is not viable without the leader. If the leader changes, the system will change rapidly or gradually. This problem cannot be solved by reshuffling personnel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka is not only the architect of the system, but also its hostage. He cannot leave without triggering its collapse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Power was once his dream, now it is his curse. Fear of the future haunts him and he cannot hide it. Unmotivated political reprisals are a manifestation of it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He has tried to create a safety net, such as the All-Belarusian Parliamentary Assembly. But it is unlikely to be effective. As long as \u0141uka\u0161enka is in power, the political system functions, but the assembly will remain a mock-up institution, just like the parliament. When he leaves, it will not be able to ensure a smooth transfer of power.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Lack of power transition mechanisms often plunges countries in crisis when dictators fall. On January 25, while appointing a new health minister, Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka previewed major personnel changes in the government: “We are making replacements, staff rotations in all ministries and departments. This is a common practice. In the run-up to parliamentary and presidential elections, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":20,"featured_media":63614,"template":"","rubric":[22],"class_list":["post-64254","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n\u0141uka\u0161enka system likely to crumble after he goes | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Lack of power transition mechanisms often plunges countries in crisis when dictators fall. 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