{"id":65797,"date":"2024-02-08T15:42:04","date_gmt":"2024-02-08T12:42:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/?post_type=longreads&p=65797"},"modified":"2024-02-08T16:03:58","modified_gmt":"2024-02-08T13:03:58","slug":"no-opposition-no-independent-observers-fake-competition-ten-points-about-coming-elections","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/65797\/","title":{"rendered":"No opposition, no independent observers, fake competition: ten points about coming elections"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Registered candidates are formally allowed to conduct their campaigns in the run-up to the parliamentary and local elections, but most are unlikely to make an effort to get out the vote.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\n (BelaPAN)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Military rant<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

1. For the first time, elections for the lower house of the National Assembly and the local councils will be held on the same day. The so-called “single day of voting” is scheduled for February 25.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To shorten the election process as much as possible, Minsk has allowed only three weeks of campaigning. Although only pliant pro-government candidates have been selected, officials fear of public discontent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2. Since 2020, Minsk has perceived elections as a threat and a danger. The only way to neutralize this threat is brute, primarily military force, which the regime uses extensively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The government views elections as a military operation. Interior Minister Ivan Kubrako\u016d said on January 13 that his ministry had set up “rapid response groups” to secure polling stations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Leanid Davidovi\u010d, deputy Air\/Air Defense commander, in a televised interview, promised to defend the election process from air attacks and threatened to shoot down civilian aircrafts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\n\n Leanid Davidovi\u010d\n <\/div>\n \n
\n (STV)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

3. For the first time in 33 years of Belarus\u2019 independence, the elections will be held without opposition candidates and election officials and observers representing organizations independent of the government. As a result, at least half of the population will not be represented in the government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Since 1996, opponents have essentially not been represented, with a few exceptions. But at least they had the opportunity to run races and electioneer. That is no longer possible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some critics and independents were hoping to participate. Siarhiej \u010cera\u010de\u0144, leader of the Belarusian Social Democratic Hramada, which was shut down in 2023, said that about 40 activists from his team would run. Activists of “Tell the Truth!”, outlawed in 2021, allegedly planned to run as well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But after the central election commission registered only pro-government candidates and disqualified the rest. For instance, \u0179micier Ku\u010duk, ex-leader of the Belarusian Green Party, was denied permission to register a signature-collection group.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Diminished competition<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

4. A total of 265 candidates will compete for 110 seats in the House of Representatives, an average of 2.4 per seat, said Ihar Karpenka, the top election official. More candidates were running in 2019 (562 candidates, 5.1 per seat) and 2016 (521, 4.7 per seat).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\n\n Ihar Karpienka\n <\/div>\n \n
\n (BelTA)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

5. Secrecy. The names of election commissioners are not disclosed. It is forbidden to photograph or post online completed ballots both during the early voting and on election day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The elections will be held without independent observers, either foreign (from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe) or domestic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pro-government organizations are allowed to deploy monitors, just as the Commonwealth of Independent States, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the Parliamentary Assembly of the Collective Security Treaty Organization and the Union State. These groups routinely issue positive assessments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

6. Still, the elections will be slightly more competitive than ballots held in the Soviet Union. In the USSR there was one candidate per seat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Minsk decided to imitate certain competition among loyalists, just to look more respectable in the eyes of ordinary people and external actors. After all, one candidate per constituency would surprise even CIS observers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The loyalists are unlikely to conduct get-out-the-vote campaigns simply because the Belarusian vote-rigging machine is not designed to count votes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There will be even less competition in the local elections with 18,802 candidates running for 12,514 seats, about 1.5 people per seat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Preview of 2025 presidential poll<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

7. During registration, 33 parliamentary candidates (11 percent) were disqualified, probably those who did not understand the process and decided to run without approval from the executive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

8. Only 7.4 percent MPs run for re-election. The legislature will change drastically. In the previous election, at least one third of the MPs kept their seats. \u0141uka\u0161enka said earlier that he wanted continuity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The purge of dissenters has also affected parliament, because in 2020 some MPs were hesitant, and some even visited hospitals to support protesters beaten by riot police. They will pay the price.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

9. A drastic decrease in the number of political parties from 15 to 4 has not reflected on the proportion of partisan candidates. About two thirds of all candidates represent pro-\u0141uka\u0161enka parties, roughly the same proportion as in the 2019 parliamentary elections.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

10. The elections are a dress rehearsal before the 2025 presidential poll. \u0141uka\u0161enka has already made it clear that he intends to run again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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