{"id":67645,"date":"2024-02-16T17:34:53","date_gmt":"2024-02-16T14:34:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/api.pozirk.online\/?post_type=longreads&p=67645"},"modified":"2024-02-16T17:34:55","modified_gmt":"2024-02-16T14:34:55","slug":"lukasenka-putin-get-rid-of-rivals","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/67645\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0141uka\u0161enka, Putin get rid of rivals"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Russia\u2019s election commission has barred anti-war candidate Boris Nadezhdin from the next month\u2019s presidential vote. Some observers are drawing parallels with the 2020 race in Belarus, saying that Russian President Vladimir Putin is learning from Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s mistakes.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n \"\"\n
\n \n
\n (pexels.com \/ Pixabay)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Putin, however, practiced ballot-access denial before. In 2018, he did not allow the late outspoken critic Alexei Navalny to collect signatures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Belarus and Russia: similarities and differences<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Analysts draw other parallels with the Belarusian election. In particular, some compare Nadezhdin with \u015aviat\u0142ana Cichano\u016dskaja.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In fact, it would be more accurate to compare the Russian challenger with Viktar Babaryka or Valer Capka\u0142a. Both were respectable representatives of the elites. Babaryka had headed Belgazprombank, and Capka\u0142a was a senior diplomat and head of the High Technology Park. Both ran on moderate platforms, drawing support from a broad spectrum of voters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n \"\"\n
\n
\n\n Viktar Babaryka (right) with his son Eduard\n <\/div>\n \n
\n (Babaryka's social media)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Why did the Kremlin let Nadezhdin register his signature collection group in the first place? After all, as with Navalny, it could have simply prevented him from collecting signatures. There would have been no queues of voters to put signatures in support of Nadezhdin, no hype around his name, and the campaign could have been easier for Putin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Minsk overlooked Babaryka’s momentum<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It seems that Putin made the same mistake as \u0141uka\u0161enka in 2020. Had the Belarusian central election commission not registered Babaryka’s signature-collection group, like it did with regard to Siarhiej Cichano\u016dski’s team, there might have been no protests from August to December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Minsk gave Babaryka a legal opportunity to campaign for a month. His team mobilized 10,000 volunteers in a matter of days and collected 435,000 signatures in a month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nadezhdin collected more than 200,000 signatures across Russia, according to his campaign, and submitted 105,000 to the election authority.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Babaryka was a candidate of hope for a large number of disenchanted voters. His arrest sparked protests, and the opposition later capitalized on his campaign\u2019s momentum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When Babaryka was denied registration, protests swept the country. Several thousand people formed a kilometer line outside the election commission office to file appeals against the denial of registration. Voters filed about 5,000 appeals before the commission stopped accepting them. Voters converged on the central post office in Minsk to mail their complaints, but authorities closed it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Had the government not registered Babaryka’s group, unrest might be easier to control.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The registration of Babaryka’s signature collection group was one of many mistakes made by Lukashenka in 2020, if not the most important one.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kremlin experiment failed<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Putin’s cronies probably regret giving Nadezhdin a chance to promote himself as an anti-war leader.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a way, the government conducted a test to measure anti-war and anti-Putin sentiment. It is quite high, so the government decided to put an end to the opposition hopeful\u2019s campaign, albeit in a more stylish way than \u0141uka\u0161enka did in Belarus in 2020. It has not sent Nadezhdin to prison and narrowly got away with his disqualification.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nadezhdin is said to have had a zero rating before he announced his bid. Nobody knew Cichano\u016dskaja when she launched her campaign, and Babaryka trailed early into the contest. The then housewife built a tide because many voters were fed up with \u0141uka\u0161enka.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Putin is said to do well in polls, not like \u0141uka\u0161enka in the summer of 2020, probably because there is no alternative. For many years \u0141uka\u0161enka was in a similar situation. “Who else but him?” many voters said. But as soon as there is an opponent, the ratings of authoritarian leaders may fall rapidly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

No thrills in 2025<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In the run-up to the local and parliamentary elections, \u0141uka\u0161enka made it crystal clear that has drawn at least one important conclusion from his blunders \u2013 there must be no real opposition and no alternative.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He is set to hold a presidential election in 2025 without any opponents, even weak ones, for the first time. Instead, there will be figureheads, stooges and spoiler candidates like the ones Putin has now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They may be older than \u0141uka\u0161enka, so that he looks younger, like Nikolai Kharitonov in Russia, who is four years older than Putin. Some eccentric figures, like Mika\u0142aj U\u0142achovi\u010d, a leader of Cossacks registered as a candidate in Belarus in 2015, may be allowed to compete, but, for instance, Aleh Hajdukevi\u010d, who is doing his best to please the ruler, might be barred because he looks younger and more energetic than \u0141uka\u0161enka.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Russia\u2019s election commission has barred anti-war candidate Boris Nadezhdin from the next month\u2019s presidential vote. Some observers are drawing parallels with the 2020 race in Belarus, saying that Russian President Vladimir Putin is learning from Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s mistakes. Putin, however, practiced ballot-access denial before. In 2018, he did not allow the late outspoken critic Alexei […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":20,"featured_media":66339,"template":"","rubric":[24],"class_list":["post-67645","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n\u0141uka\u0161enka, Putin get rid of rivals | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Russia\u2019s election commission has barred anti-war candidate Boris Nadezhdin from the next month\u2019s presidential vote. 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