{"id":70034,"date":"2024-02-28T09:35:30","date_gmt":"2024-02-28T06:35:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/70034\/"},"modified":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","modified_gmt":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","slug":"elections-amid-tight-security-lukasenka-rehearses-2025-coronation","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/70034\/","title":{"rendered":"Elections amid tight security: \u0141uka\u0161enka rehearses 2025 coronation"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

On February 25, at a polling station in Minsk, Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka said he will run for president again in 2025. “Why don’t you just crown yourself,” retorted opposition leader \u015aviat\u0142ana Cichano\u016dskaja.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\n (pexels.com \/ George Becker)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

“A responsible president would not abandon his people who followed him into a battle,” the Belarusian ruler said in an apparent reference to his desperate effort to hold on to power after the contested presidential election in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He used the February 20-25 elections for the House of Representatives and local councils as a test run before the next year\u2019s presidential race. He coached his team, and his cronies did their best to prove their ability to deliver the expected result.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Elections as existential threat<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Soviet-style parliamentary and local elections were notable for the lack of competition and bravado and crowing among government supporters. It was a stage-managed ritual, which offered Belarusians no choice.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the USSR before perestroika, there was only one candidate on the ballot. The Belarusian government imitated competition in clumsy way – all candidates were thoroughly vetted to make sure everyone is 100-percent loyal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka realized the full potential and unpredictability of democratic elections in 1994, when trounced then-Prime Minister Via\u010des\u0142a\u016d Kiebi\u010d in the presidential race.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Since then, he has consistently rolled back freedoms. This year, the central election commission has not admitted a single opposition candidate or observer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On February 25, \u0141uka\u0161enka claimed that the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) had never asked Minsk to observe the elections.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In fact, Minsk officially announced in January that the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights was not be invited. Andrej Savinych, head of the Belarusian delegation to the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly, linked that decision to international sanctions against Belarus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The observers from the Commonwealth of Independent States, the Union State of Belarus and Russia, the Parliamentary Assembly of the Collective Security Treaty Organization and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization lauded the smooth conduct of the elections.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2020, things went horribly wrong for \u0141uka\u0161enka. Now he sees elections as an existential threat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Minsk was ratcheted up tension in the build-up. \u0141uka\u0161enka set the tone, speaking of threats of sabotage, terrorist attacks and even a coup. Generals and top officials echoed his fears.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On February 24, BelPol, an association of former law enforcement officers, hacked public displays at shopping malls, subway and many other public places in Belarus to broadcast an appeal by opposition leader \u015aviat\u0142ana Cichano\u016dskaja who urged Belarusians to ignore “the sham elections.” <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Who needs high turnout<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Citing his sources in Belarus, opposition leader Pavie\u0142 \u0141atu\u0161ka said that Belarusians have largely ignored voting and that polling stations, especially those in Minsk, were empty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The central election commission reported a voter turnout of 72.98 percent. It said that 41.71 percent cast their ballots during the five-day early voting period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The early voting percentage was higher than in 2020. In that election, people with a genuine urge for change queued to the polling stations, many with white ribbons on their wrists, symbolizing their support for Cichano\u016dskaja. Now Belarusians were largely forced to vote.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\n\n Early voting on February 23\n <\/div>\n \n
\n (Central election commission)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

In the past, early voting was promoted as an option for those who could not make it to the polls on Sunday. Now, propaganda pushes early voting as patriotism and civic maturity. With headlines like “Youth in the Forefront,” state media reporting was similar to North Korean propaganda.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Why was it necessary to compel voters to cast their ballots early and inflate voter turnout if the threshold for parliamentary elections has been abolished?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Opponents said that early voting was vulnerable to abuse, claiming that officials replaced ballots at night to falsify the results in favor of the government. Now officials simply write the desired figures down into the final protocols.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

High voter turnout is important for the government to create the impression of high interest in the elections and mass popular support for its policies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In addition, officials do their best to please the boss.  If early voting turnout is low, they might be punished for failure to mobilize voters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka conducted the vote as a dress rehearsal for the 2025 presidential election and an opportunity to test officials’ ability to imitate popular enthusiasm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The final turnout was somewhat low because he is eager to make numbers shine during the presidential race.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Matter of life and death<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Parliamentary and local elections in Belarus have never energized society and gave rise mass protests, but this year Minsk prepared as if for a major war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The polling stations and their surroundings were under video surveillance. Before being sent to the polling stations, police were trained to tackle potential troublemakers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\n\n Tactical training of Minsk police for guarding polling stations, February 14\n <\/div>\n \n
\n (Telegram channel of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Belarus)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

To maintain order, the government deployed vigilante groups, police veterans, police academy cadets and youth squads. Mobile riot units with automatic rifles were on standby, while Interior Troops Commander Mikalaj Karpianko\u016d even threatened to employ Wagner mercenaries if necessary.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka sees elections as the fight for self-preservation rather than a legitimate way to change governments, and treats his opponents as extremists and criminals encroaching on the constitutional order. The ruling class equates its rule, based on fraud and violence, with the constitutional order.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka claimed that the opposition would use the elections as a rehearsal for a riot planned for 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In fact, he held a rehearsal for his own re-election, and it was largely successful.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka made it crystal clear that there will be no genuine competition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“These is not the time when crowds of people ran [for president],” he said. “The president is not a tsar, not a god, it is a very hard job. And in the current situation, not everyone will dare to carry this burden.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Indeed, those who dare may end up serving years in prison, like Viktar Babaryka and Siarhej Cichano\u016dski.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He also plans to take charge of the All-Belarusian People’s Assembly in April to make sure he is in full control.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The assembly, with sweeping powers under the new constitution, will be made up of government officials, hand-picked MPs and activists of government-organized non-governmental organizations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Determined to play hardball<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A lot can happen between now and mid-2025. It is not clear how the war in Ukraine will play out, what will happen to Vladimir Putin and to the Belarusian economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gearing up for a new term, \u0141uka\u0161enka obviously assumes the worst case scenario, modeling a confluence of unfavorable circumstances. He keeps saying that his enemies will rock the boat, and therefore they should not hope “for democracy and some ephemeral freedom.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\n\n \u0141uka\u0161enka at a polling station in Minsk on February 25\n <\/div>\n \n
\n (Press office of Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Extremely suspicious, paranoiac and addicted to conspiracy theories, he realizes that he has nowhere to retreat. He has gone too far and will be held accountable if he steps down.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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