{"id":77021,"date":"2024-04-02T12:31:15","date_gmt":"2024-04-02T09:31:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/77021\/"},"modified":"2026-03-09T20:10:49","modified_gmt":"2026-03-09T20:10:49","slug":"risks-of-possible-russian-offensive-for-belarus","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/77021\/","title":{"rendered":"Risks of possible Russian offensive for Belarus"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

While Belarusian officials willingly comment on Moscow\u2019s concert hall attack, propaganda has hushed up gasoline deliveries from Belarusian refineries to Russia and ignores fears of a possible large-scale Russian offensive on Kharkiv, which might drag Belarus deeper in the war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n \"\"\n
\n
\n\n A Kharkiv apartment building hit by a Russian missile, July 11, 2022\n <\/div>\n \n
\n (kh.dsns.gov.ua)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Moscow eyes Belarus as venue for show trial<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Russian MP Mariya Butina said on March 29 that negotiations were under way to hold a show trial for alleged concert hall attackers in Belarus and have them sentenced to death, Belarus 1<\/em> reported.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russia introduced a moratorium on the capital punishment in 1997.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka’s propaganda welcomed Butina’s proposal, although Belarus\u2019 involvement might expose the country to terrorist threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gasoline supplies to Russia<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In a separate development, Reuters <\/em>reportedthat Belarus increased gasoline supplies to Russia following Ukrainian drone attacks on refineries and fuel depots.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On March 30, the Washington Post<\/em> quoted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as saying that the United States did not approve of Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Kyiv will not give up the tactic, he said, noting that Russians should get used to living without gasoline, diesel fuel and electricity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukrainian strikes in recent weeks have reportedly caused significant damage, forcing the Russian government to increase fuel deliveries from Belarus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Minsk actually prefers to sell its petroleum products elsewhere, not in Russia, where prices are lower.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Obviously, the fuel deliveries increase the risk of Ukrainian attacks on Belarusian refineries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Most Belarusian and Ukrainian observers agree that such strikes are highly unlikely, but cannot be completely ruled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kyiv and Minsk are in the state of a cold war, which neither side wants to turn into a hot war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given Minsk’s dependence on Moscow and its complicity in Russia’s war against Ukraine, the status quo is extremely fragile.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rumors of Russian offensive<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Rumors have been circulating in the West that Russia prepares for a major offensive in late spring or early summer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Zelensky has recently admitted that Kyiv would find it difficult to cope with a new onslaught without proper U.S. military assistance. While Russian propagandists pounced on that statement, Minsk keeps silent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

An attack on Kharkiv or Kyiv would be a tough challenge not only for Ukraine, but also for Belarus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To execute such an ambitious plan, Vladimir Putin may decide to use all the resources at his disposal, including its ally.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The strategy could involve sending Belarusian troops to Ukraine, as well as tension at Belarus’ borders with Ukraine and the EU to distract Ukrainian forces or deter Western partners from providing more support for Kyiv.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That would be fraught with a spillover of hostilities into Belarus and new Western sanctions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Such a scenario is absolutely not in Minsk’s interest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If the Russian offensive were successful and it achieved its goals in Ukraine, Belarus would become less important to the Kremlin, and Moscow could step up its effort to annex the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For now, Russia has its hands full in Ukraine, so it generously supports its only ally, \u0141uka\u0161enka, and condescends to his buffoonery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the future, the Kremlin may turn its attention to Belarus, taming its stubborn “little brother” and further narrowing its field for maneuver.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

* * *<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Minsk has adapted to the war and does not expect it to end soon. Belarusian authorities are well aware that any changes may drag Belarus even deeper in the war and that hostilities could spill over into its territory.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

While Belarusian officials willingly comment on Moscow\u2019s concert hall attack, propaganda has hushed up gasoline deliveries from Belarusian refineries to Russia and ignores fears of a possible large-scale Russian offensive on Kharkiv, which might drag Belarus deeper in the war. Moscow eyes Belarus as venue for show trial Russian MP Mariya Butina said on March […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":83,"featured_media":0,"template":"","rubric":[22],"class_list":["post-77021","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nRisks of possible Russian offensive for Belarus | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"While Belarusian officials willingly comment on Moscow\u2019s concert hall attack, propaganda has hushed up gasoline deliveries from Belarusian refineries to\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/77021\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Risks of possible Russian offensive for Belarus | Pozirk\" \/>\n<meta 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