{"id":79752,"date":"2024-04-15T10:58:32","date_gmt":"2024-04-15T07:58:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/79752\/"},"modified":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","modified_gmt":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","slug":"lukasenka-trying-to-make-the-most-of-his-co-aggressor-status","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/79752\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0141uka\u0161enka trying to make the most of his co-aggressor status"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\u201cI do not deny that we are co-aggressors. Everyone does their job,\u201d Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka told reporters on April 11 after talks at the Kremlin. He and Vladimir Putin seem to have agreed to separate duties in the Russian-Ukrainian war.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n \"\"\n
\n
\n\n Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka holding talks with Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin on April 11, 2024.\n <\/div>\n \n
\n (\u0141uka\u0161enka's press office)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

During his Moscow visit, \u0141uka\u0161enka acted as Kremlin’s mouthpiece on possible peace talks with Kyiv. He advocated using the 2022 Istanbul agreements as the basis and criticized Switzerland for not inviting Russia to a peace conference coming up in June.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While admitting to being a co-aggressor, \u0141uka\u0161enka also cast himself as a peacemaker. This time he even called the Ukrainian president by his first name and patronymic, although in the past he denigrated him and portrayed him as a rookie in politics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russia needs peaceful Belarus<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Belarus does not need and will not need to enter the Russian-Ukrainian war, he told reporters in Moscow on April 11.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He outlined the arguments that he had probably presented to Putin more than once in private. And they seem to have reached a consensus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cRussia needs a peaceful, quiet, calm Belarus that does its job. I do not deny that we are co-aggressors. Everyone does their job,\u201d the Belarusian leader\u2019s press office quoted him as saying.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Belarus has been supplying Russia with both civilian and military products, filling niches that have opened up as a result of sanctions and the withdrawal of Western companies. Minsk is helping Moscow mitigate sanctions through gray imports.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka explained why it does not make sense for Belarus to attack Ukraine. \u201cYou cannot approach it; it has been fully mined and secured with concrete, and there are 120,000 Ukrainian soldiers at this border.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka argued that if he entered the war, Belarus and Russia would not be able to defend the frontline along the border with Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic states.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI tell you we will not be able to do it. Do we want problems? No, we don\u2019t. This is the second point. The first is that such Belarus may come in handy to Ukraine, like to Russia today,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“Half of our country is within a hundred kilometers of Kyiv, including the Mozyr refinery, which fortunately is working without interruption and has been upgraded, and you [Russians] fill up [your tanks] with fuel from the Mozyr refinery,” he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka might have actually repeated what he told Putin, who seems to more or less agree with his reasoning. Otherwise, the Belarusian ruler would not be so confident.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He stayed in Moscow for two days, and that is also a sign of an understanding with Putin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Covering the backs of \u201cRussian brothers”<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka and Putin at their meeting in Moscow dismissed speculations that they contemplated an attack on a European Union country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe have never discussed such plans that we want to capture any country. We have many problems of our own,\u201d the Belarusian leader said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Putin dismissed speculations about Russia\u2019s aggressive plans as nonsense that the ruling circles in Western countries use as a pretext to justify spending on the war in Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Obviously, Western politicians do not buy their assurances. Weeks before the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, both claimed they massed troops for joint military exercises.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2022, the United States warned of an imminent invasion. At the moment, not enough forces are present in Belarus either for a new offensive on Kyiv or for a blitzkrieg on Vilnius or Warsaw.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It would take several months to mass forces here, and any major deployment would be tracked by intelligence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Putin wants his troops in Ukraine to advance as much as possible to be able to negotiate from a position of strength.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even if Russia announced a new draft, it would send more troops where they are needed most in Ukraine, for example, for an expected offensive on Kharkiv. Opening a new front against NATO is obviously a bad idea.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka argues that his troops protect Russia from a possible attack by NATO. He said he was looking forward to the hypothetical deployment of French troops to the shared border with Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“Now they have started talking about sending their troops into Ukraine, most likely to the border with Belarus. We are waiting, let them send them,” he said in apparent reference to French President Emmanuel Macron\u2019s recent remark.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The chances of Western troops being deployed into Ukraine are slim. Anyway, foreign troops would not be used for offensive operations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka, however, finds it important to play up the value of his services to Moscow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Party on Russia<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka is trying to take advantage of his current role. On April 11, he said that “if we are aggressors, frankly speaking, then equal conditions for economic entities and people should be equal”.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Minsk seeks to get as much as possible from Russia for being its only ally.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

During his conversation with Putin, \u0141uka\u0161enka said, “Of the loans allocated for joint projects – 100 billion [Russian rubles] – 80 billion are already at work.” His message was clear: it would be good to throw in some more money.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He is obviously happy with Belarus\u2019 involvement in the Russian space program. On March 26, he said that the space flight by a Belarusian woman would have cost Belarus $70 million, but it was covered by Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now \u0141uka\u0161enka is persuading Putin to send other Belarusian cosmonauts into space.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He obviously enjoys the image as leader of the space power and wants to continue the space banquet, especially at the expense of his “big brother.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka walking fine line<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In the first weeks of Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine, and especially after its failures near Kyiv, \u0141uka\u0161enka looked nervous and agitated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now he is much more relaxed. He has managed to avoid sending his troops into this bloodbath and secured Russian orders for Belarusian companies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russian troops are pushing back the Ukrainians, and some Western politicians are already nudging Kyiv to make peace on unfavorable terms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some analysts say that in case of a deal with Ukraine, Putin would value the Belarusian vassal less, cut subsidies, or even annex Belarus. However, this suggestion is questionable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A lull would most likely be used by Moscow to build up forces for a final settlement with Ukraine, or even for operations elsewhere. The Belarusian ally could come in handy again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka has a talent for walking a fine line. He has adapted surprisingly well to the big war in the neighborhood, posing as a wise guardian of peace in Belarus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, recent reports suggest that trade growth has slowed down. Belarusian dealers reportedly have large stockpiles of unsold goods in Russia. The trade surplus has shrunk, Equatorial Guinea has proved to be a poor substitute for Europe and Ukraine as trading partners.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the one-sided reliance on the Russian market and logistics can backfire.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Leaving aside the space program, Russia has little to offer in terms of advanced technology.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Most importantly, Moscow\u2019s aggressive behavior carries potential repercussions for Belarus’ prosperity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka has no choice but to stick with Putin because he does not want to stand before the International Court of Justice in The Hague. As he tries to avoid direct involvement in the war, he seeks to squeeze the maximum out of his co-aggressor status.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u201cI do not deny that we are co-aggressors. Everyone does their job,\u201d Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka told reporters on April 11 after talks at the Kremlin. He and Vladimir Putin seem to have agreed to separate duties in the Russian-Ukrainian war. During his Moscow visit, \u0141uka\u0161enka acted as Kremlin’s mouthpiece on possible peace talks with Kyiv. He […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":79247,"template":"","rubric":[22],"class_list":["post-79752","longreads","type-longreads","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","rubric-theviewer"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n\u0141uka\u0161enka trying to make the most of his co-aggressor status | Pozirk<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"\u201cI do not deny that we are co-aggressors. Everyone does their job,\u201d Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka told reporters on April 11 after talks at the Kremlin. 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