{"id":82322,"date":"2024-04-26T14:17:48","date_gmt":"2024-04-26T11:17:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/82322\/"},"modified":"2026-03-09T20:10:49","modified_gmt":"2026-03-09T20:10:49","slug":"who-will-tell-lukasenka-to-go","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/82322\/","title":{"rendered":"Who will tell \u0141uka\u0161enka to go?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka has a second job as chairman of the All-Belarusian People’s Assembly (UNS), which has meaningful powers under the new Constitution. He made it clear that he is not going to retire.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\n\n \u0141uka\u0161enka and officials on the second day of the All-Belarusian People's Assembly in Minsk on April 25\n <\/div>\n \n
\n (Press office of \u0141uka\u0161enka)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

“I will retire only when you tell me in some form: ‘That’s it!’ And when there is a man standing next to me who will not betray, who will go to the barricades without fear,” he said on April 24.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Determined to stay<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In 2020, workers at the Minsk Wheeled Tractor Factory booed \u0141uka\u0161enka and told him in plain language, “Go away!” Hundreds of thousands of protesters chanted that demand at massive protest rallies across the country in the following days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, according to his interpretation, after the presidential election only some scum of society – drug addicts, prostitutes and bandits \u2013 stood up against his authoritarian rule.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

During the protests and after they were suppressed, he kept saying that he was thinking of stepping down. Moscow was probably pushing for power transition at that time as well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the previous UNS session in February 2021, \u0141uka\u0161enka, still under the impression of the peaceful uprising, tried to prove that he had won anyway. In particular, he argued that even if local governors had manipulated the results, perhaps only a little bit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now that the dissent has been completely crushed, he is acting funky, even though he is not looking too healthy. “Yes, the Lukashists have gathered here, there are and there will be no enemies,” he said triumphantly about the gathering of his stalwarts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And then he addressed these carefully selected subservient people with playful remarks, saying that he would leave if people told him to.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He knows perfectly well that none has the guts to tell him to go, even though some might think that a man who has been in power for nearly 30 years should finally say goodbye.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“I don’t cling to the post, neither one nor the other”<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Many of the delegates really want \u0141uka\u0161enka to rule as long as possible. When opposition leaders say that the whole nation is groaning under the yoke of dictatorship, they oversimplify the picture.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

During \u0141uka\u0161enka’s rule, a whole class of people has emerged who have a genuine interest in preserving his system.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These are bureaucrats who see no prospects for themselves in a democratic Belarus, law enforcers, especially those involved in political reprisals, propagandists and businesspeople with connections in the government. And their families, of course, although some of their children have rebelled. And a lot of other people with paternalistic mentality, not too bright and enterprising, reliant on the state.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important for the opponents to realize it to avoid making unrealistic plans. In particular, they should think about how to find common ground for a possible dialogue with their opponents in the future, even though this may seem like a betrayal to some ardent fighters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Belarusian establishment is not homogeneous. Some in the system, especially those dealing with the economy, were probably not happy with the brutal crackdown that has triggered sanctions, disrupted trade ties with the West and washed out labor force.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A rebellion is hardly possible within the Belarusian establishment, which is bugged by special services and trembles at the mere sight of the incumbent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That is why \u0141uka\u0161enka said calmly, “I don’t cling to the post – neither one nor the other.” No one will dare to challenge him from within.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, his remark, “when there is a person who will not betray” unwittingly showed that he does not fully trust his lieutenants.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lithuania\u2019s drone attack<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In \u0141uka\u0161enka’s mind, enemies are everywhere, from clandestine dissenters hiding underground to officials in Washington.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the second day of the meeting, he lashed out at NATO and the United States. “Western secret services today consider Belarusian children as recruitment material,” he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ivan Tertel, head of the KGB, painted a picture of a large-scale sinister conspiracy by the West against Belarus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He claimed that his agency had prevented drone attacks from Lithuania on facilities in and around Minsk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vilnius immediately denied the allegation. Of course, no state would confirm its covert operations. But in this case, it is highly unlikely that Vilnius, already fearful of aggressive Russia and its ally Belarus, would be asking for trouble.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At a checkpoint near the Lithuanian border, \u0141uka\u0161enka said recently that the Lithuanians were digging anti-tank trenches, preparing to defend themselves against a possible attack. Belarus’ NATO neighbors would not provoke a potential enemy by launching drones with explosives.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The KGB chief also claimed that the Ukrainian security services had instructed youths in Baranavi\u010dy to blow up a local police station, which also makes no sense. Kyiv\u2019s tactic is not to annoy Minsk to keep it at bay.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Obviously, the law-enforcement agencies are trying hard to please \u0141uka\u0161enka by demonizing the West, Ukraine and Belarusian dissidents.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Belarusian hacktivist group Cyberpartisans, mentioned by Tertel, is indeed capable of hacking into government IT systems, which they do from time to time. However, they insist that their priority is not to harm ordinary people.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Violent scenarios<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, according to Tertel, radical forces in Lithuania, allegedly those who have fled Belarus, are making plans to enter the A\u0161miany, Smarho\u0144 and Bras\u0142a\u016d districts bordering Lithuania to carry out terrorist attacks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The KGB chief also said that participants at clandestine meetings under the auspices of the Polish government are seriously discussing ways to organize a Belarusian liberation army.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Obviously, many political \u00e9migr\u00e9s who have settled down in Poland and Lithuania do not have warm feelings toward the Belarusian regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But it is hard to believe that the governments of the neighboring NATO countries, in alliance with these emigrants, are preparing an invasion of Belarus, which hosts Russian nuclear weapons.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Of course, some political opponents are more radical than the others. Some regret that they were not resolute enough to topple the shaky regime in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

After the protests were crushed, radical scenarios have indeed gained popularity. Kalino\u016dski regiment fighters openly say that after defeating Russia in Ukraine, they will go on to liberate Belarus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Opponents radicalize because \u0141uka\u0161enka refused to step down in 2020 despite the massive protests and also because the government has simply eliminated all other options for transformation, sliding into totalitarianism and catastrophic dependence on Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Belarusians waiting for right moment<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

“If they decide that I should go, I’ll go. And if people decide that there will be another person (I am not being trivial, I say this sincerely) – I will agree,” \u0141uka\u0161enka said on the sidelines of the UNS, in reply to a question about the 2025 presidential election.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When he says “they” or “people,” he obviously refers to his stalwart supporters. All others have simply been gagged, imprisoned, or forced into exile.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We don’t know who and when will say to the incumbent: “That’s it.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It could be a doctor with his hand on the ruler’s pulse. However, the last call may also come with Russia\u2019s downfall.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Many Belarusians want a different political system, a more humane one, and are just waiting for a window of opportunity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now that \u0141uka\u0161enka has destroyed the normal peaceful mechanism of power transition, change may occur in a way that could be quite painful for the ruling class.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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