{"id":85135,"date":"2024-05-15T12:53:41","date_gmt":"2024-05-15T09:53:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/85135\/"},"modified":"2026-03-09T20:10:49","modified_gmt":"2026-03-09T20:10:49","slug":"tied-to-russia-belarus-misses-big-opportunities","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/85135\/","title":{"rendered":"Tied to Russia, Belarus misses big opportunities"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

By Ale\u015b Hudzija<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vladimir Putin seems determined to remain in power in Russia until 2030, and possibly even until 2036. The Belarusian economy is tied to Russia closer than ever before, which may be a problem in the future.
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Vladimir Putin seems determined to remain in power in Russia until 2030, and possibly even until 2036. The Belarusian economy is tied to Russia closer than ever before, which may be a problem in the future.

Belarus seems destined to have close economic ties with Russia. The two countries inextricably linked by their Soviet past, language and similar mentality. However, other Eastern European and Baltic countries proved that however strong the ties to Russia may be, opening up to Europe can be a game changer.
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Belarus trails behind Russia<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Vladimir Putin’s inauguration ceremony on May 7 in Moscow may have seemed routine and devoid of drama. However, his fifth term is likely to be very different from the previous ones, and that does not bode well for Minsk.

Belarus relies on Russia for economic growth and has always been outpaced by Russia.

During Putin’s first two terms, both economies grew steadily, riding on the strength of energy prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When Dmitry Medvedev took over the presidency in 2008, Russia’s GDP was 6.4 times higher than in 2000, while Belarus’ was 4.8 times higher.

Note: Here and below US dollar values are used for GDP, wages and foreign trade based on World Bank data, Russian and Belarusian statistics and the average annual exchange rates of the Belarusian rubel and Russian ruble to the US dollar.

Putin’s third term was marked by a sharp rise and subsequent economic decline in Russia following the annexation of Crimea.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the Russian economy was 8.5 times larger in 2012 than in 2000, it was only 6.4 times larger in 2018. This also affected the Belarusian economy, which at the beginning of Putin’s third term was five times larger than in 2000, but only 4.7 times larger at the end of his term.

Putin’s fourth term was marked by Russia\u2019s adaptation to sanctions, strong economic growth in 2022 followed by uncertainty in connection with the war against Ukraine.

For Belarus, that period was associated with turbulence after the 2020 presidential election and multiple sanctions imposed primarily for Minsk’s involvement in the military conflict on the side of Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Belarusian economy has not been growing in the last few years, only recovering from recessions.

Economic growth in Russia and Belarus<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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during the four terms of Putin’s presidency<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Year 2000 \u2013 100 percent<\/p>\n\n\n\n

First term, second term, third term, fourth term<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russia (blue), Belarus (red)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

An analysis of changes in average income in Russia and Belarus shows a similar picture. For the sake of comparability, wages are analyzed in foreign currency equivalents.

From 2000 to 2008, both countries experienced rapid economic growth and a sharp rise in wages.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Interestingly, wages in Russia continued to rise during Medvedev’s presidency, while the rise in Belarus slowed and did not resume until the beginning of Putin’s third term.

Wages and GDP fell in Russia after the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Average monthly pay in Russia and Belarus<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Trade diversification short-lived<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At the beginning of Putin’s first term, two-way trade was rising at a moderate pace, and it was not until his second term that it accelerated. Under Medvedev, trade declined amid the global crisis, but then recovered at the beginning of Putin’s third term.

During Putin’s third term and throughout the first half of his fourth term, trade between Belarus and Russia declined and then fluctuated without a marked upward trend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

After 2022, however, the countries reported a sharp increase as Belarus redirected exports to Russia.

Belarus’ trade in goods with Russia<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Export (blue), import (red)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

During Putin’s second term, trade grew rapidly, but the share of Russia in Belarus’ foreign trade decreased. Belarus forged economic ties with other countries.

During Putin’s third term and the first half of his fourth term, Russia’s share remained relatively stable with minor fluctuations, and after 2022 it increased sharply.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russia\u2019s share of Belarus’ trade in goods<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Export (red), import (blue)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

No positive agenda<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At the beginning of Putin’s fifth term, the countries found themselves in an increasingly hostile external environment characterized by supple chain disruptions, restrictions on international payments, and major challenges in the labor market, investment and innovation.

Obviously, the main problems are the leaders\u2019 lack of a clear vision and positive agenda.

Officials in both countries use complex terms and concepts to describe vague prospects.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Faced with isolation from high technologies, officials call for technological sovereignty, stronger ties with traditional trading partners and expansion to new markets. In politics, the governments restricted rights and freedoms, citing the need to protect traditional values.

Belarus is now more dependent on Russia than ever before. However, Russia’s model is flawed, as accurately described by State Duma speaker Vyacheslav Volodin: “There is Putin – there is Russia; no Putin – no Russia.”

Therefore, the main question now is what will come after the personalist regimes in Russia and Belarus and how it will affect their economies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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