{"id":85638,"date":"2024-05-17T14:29:39","date_gmt":"2024-05-17T11:29:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/85638\/"},"modified":"2024-05-17T14:29:42","modified_gmt":"2024-05-17T11:29:42","slug":"coordination-council-has-yet-to-prove-its-worth","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/85638\/","title":{"rendered":"Coordination Council has yet to prove its worth"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Belarus\u2019 exiled opposition is gearing up for an election for the Coordination Council scheduled for May 25-27. Although seats are up for grabs, the proto-parliament faces a major challenge to rally voters and define its mission.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\n (tsikhanouskaya.org)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka and his security services have been doing their best to disrupt the vote and have already designated more than 120 candidates as extremists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Platforms<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Twelve lists with a total of 265 nominees have been registered for the election to be held based on a proportional system, which is commonplace in European democracies but new to Belarusians.

The Narodnaja Hramada Social Democrats have joined forces with Christian Democrats to form the Salidarna\u015b\u0107 <\/strong>(Solidarity) bloc.

In Western democracies, Social and Christian Democrats have quite different ideologies, but in the Belarusian circumstances party titles do not mean much, especially after 2020.

Salidarna\u015b\u0107 promotes a four-point platform. General and declarative messages and ppelling and punctuation errors suggest that it was written in a hurry.

For example, the first point declares support for free, fair and transparent elections in Belarus in accordance with Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe standards. A wonderful wish, except that \u0141uka\u0161enka does not recognize these standards and is clearly in no rush to retire. A resolution by the Coordination Council would not force him to do so.

The Vola<\/strong> (Freedom) movement (List No. 2) declares its goal to liberate the country from \u201chybrid occupation” and oust the government that holds power unconstitutionally.

For this purpose, it calls for the formation of a Belarusian Liberation Army. However, the big question marks are resources (soldiers and equipment) and a country to host it.

Niezale\u017enyja Bie\u0142arusy<\/strong> (Independent Belarusians) promise to table three plans for the liberation of Belarus: tactical, strategic and Plan B. Its leaders note the failure of ByPol’s Pieramoha Plan, as well as the complete failure of pro-democracy forces in strategic planning.

Given that ByPol leader Aleksandar Azara\u016d is on the Zakon i Pravaparadak <\/strong>(Law and Order) list, \u00a0heated debate is expected on the use of radical methods against the \u0141uka\u0161enka regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Unclear messages<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Kraina dla \u017dy\u0107cia (<\/strong>Country for Living) coalition seeks to “unite all pro-democracy forces.”

Such unity has never been achieved before. It is impossible to imagine, for example, an alliance of Zianon Pa\u017aniak, Valer Capka\u0142a and \u015aviat\u0142ana Cichano\u016dskaja.

The Ho\u0142as Dyjaspar – Adzinstva Nad Mie\u017eami<\/strong> (Voice of the Diaspora – Unity Above Borders) seeks “to make the voice of the Belarusian diaspora from all over the world heard in the decision-making of the pro-democracy forces.” Their platform is also very general.

Kamanda \u0141atu\u0161ki i Ruch Za Svabodu <\/strong>(\u0141atu\u0161ka’s Team and the Movement For Freedom), <\/strong>led by Pavie\u0142 \u0141atu\u0161ka and his associate Jury Hubarevi\u010d, has declared more specific measures. For example, it is expecting the Coordination Council to adopt a program to assert Belarusian national identity.

Another question is how effective the council\u2019s decisions will be. No matter what resolutions it passes, \u0141uka\u0161enka continues to surrender elements of sovereignty to Russia.

Na\u0161a Sprava <\/strong>(Our Cause), led by political scientist Roza Turarbekava, campaigns against an iron curtain between Belarus and Europe. The team has come up with a concrete plan to facilitate cross-border travel for Belarusians.

Trying to attract votes from Belarus, other groups also campaign against locking fellow citizens inside the dictatorship and depriving them of opportunities to travel to Europe.

Ma\u0142adziovy Nastup<\/strong> (Youth Offensive) advocates simpler visa procedures and education for Belarusians, especially young people.

Chopi\u0107 Bajacca (<\/strong>Stop Being Afraid), along with sanctions, which it describes as “the only language the dictator and his junta understand,” presses for open borders for compatriots.

Je\u016drapiejski Vybar <\/strong>(European Choice), led by Alaksandar Dabravolski, a senior political adviser to \u015aviat\u0142ana Cichano\u016dskaja, promises to “actively participate in drafting and discussing reform programs aimed at building in Belarus a state based on the rule of law and efficient economy that meets European standards.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The question is, how long will they draft the reforms to put them in a drawer and will not their papers become outdated before change comes?

Vadzim Prakopje\u016d, a former businessman, and Andrej Jahora\u016d, speaker of the Coordination Council, have formed B\u0142ok Prakopjeva \u2013 Jahorava <\/strong>(Prakopje\u016d- Yahora\u016d Bloc) that proposes a two-year program for pro-democracy forces transition to sustainability. This is a daunting task.

It plans to eliminate, restructure and merge duplicate political entities to improve coordination and the use of resources.

The idea is extremely relevant as resources are shrinking, but those who would be put under the optimization knife are likely to disagree with the verdict.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Better late than never<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The previous Coordination Council was beset with backbiting and warring camps. Missing the deadlines for the election was its major failure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The original idea was to hold it simultaneously with Belarus\u2019 February 25 parliamentary and local elections to offer Belarusians a solid alternative.

But better late than never. Now candidates are urging Belarusians to vote. The council\u2019s legitimacy will depend on votes.

It is not difficult to predict that most prospective voters are based abroad, and it remains to be seen how active they will be.

Inside Belarus, even among those who support change, fewer people follow exiled opposition activities because they clearly cannot influence the government in Minsk.

\u0141uka\u0161enka is in control. He enjoys Kremlin’s support, and the Belarusian economy is growing vigorously despite the sanctions.

In addition, opposition supporters are gripped by fear.

The security services have drummed up fear by setting up fake bots and showing videos of forced confessions extracted from people supposedly registered with the Pieramoha Plan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

No matter how safe the voting platform is, most people in Belarus are unlikely to take risks.

Finally, the outgoing council has done a good job of discrediting itself.

In early April, Jahora\u016d said that 50,000 votes would be a success. That is less than one percent of the registered voters. Therefore, if the number is in this range, the council\u2019s legitimacy may be questioned.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Last chance<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The biggest challenge will be to prove that the Coordination Council is not just a talking shop.

Some analysts say that \u0141atu\u0161ka, who has the longest list of 47 people, sees the council as a stepping stone to strengthen his political positions. The politician denied plans to unseat \u015aviat\u0142ana Cichano\u016dskaja.

If \u0141atu\u0161ka and his team win a majority, the council could potentially become a strong rival for Cichano\u016dskaja.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dabravolski’s mission might be counterbalance it and make sure that Cichano\u016dskaja has enough influence.

In general, political competition is the point of democracy. However, the Belarusian pro-democracy forces operate under extreme conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If the council becomes a source of disputes, the opposition may face a major crisis. If it rubber-stamps non-binding resolutions, it will not do much good either.

It will be extremely important for the new members to finally define a mission and prove their worth in practice.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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