{"id":86658,"date":"2024-05-22T20:40:23","date_gmt":"2024-05-22T17:40:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/86658\/"},"modified":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","modified_gmt":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","slug":"lukasenkas-claim-that-neighbors-train-militants-essentially-without-merit","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/86658\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s claim that neighbors train militants essentially without merit"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

In Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka’s view, the outlook for Belarus is bleak: enemies are gritting their teeth from all sides, plotting sabotage and training militants for an invasion.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\n\n KKR soldiers\n <\/div>\n \n
\n (KKR website)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
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\n \n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u201cOur neighbors \u2013 Poles, Lithuanians and Latvians \u2013 respond to the good-neighborhood policy we have offered, I mean the visa-free space, in the opposite way,\u201d he said on May 20, promoting Committee for State Security (KGB) agents.

\u201cIn addition to information warfare, we see an attempt to force a war of sabotage groups on us. This is what we have noticed recently and what we are fighting against. We see that they train different kinds of armed units, even what they call regiments, to carry out an invasion of Belarusian territory,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Facts, speculations, phobias – all in one bottle<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Belarusian ruler\u2019s statement is a mix of facts, speculations and phobias.

Obviously, he is well informed of activities and statements by his political opponents, some of whom are toying with radical ideas. The KGB does not need to conduct sophisticated operations to spy on opponents because they do their business publicly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Belarusian strongman is especially concerned about the coming weekend\u2019s election for the Coordinating Council.

One coalition on the ballot, Vola (Freedom), is associated with the Kastu\u015b Kalino\u016dski Regiment (KKR) \u2013 the Belarusian government\u2019s biggest worry. Vola has declared a plan to organize an army with the KKR at its core to free Belarus from \u0141uka\u0161enka.

Niezale\u017enyja Bie\u0142arusy (Independent Belarusians) advocates “the creation of a security bloc,\u201d including “national rapid reaction groups\u201d . . . from among Belarusians with combat experience, military training (specialization), as well as people willing to train.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The coalition is hoping to initiate the formation of two Belarusian units within the Polish army and border guard service.

Zakon i Pravaparadak (Law and Order) has not declared any military objectives yet. The bloc is headed by Alaksandar Azara\u016d, a former law enforcement minister for \u015aviat\u0142ana Cichano\u016dskaja and an architect of the much-talked-of Peramoha (Victory) Plan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Azara\u016d\u2019s ByPol association was involved in the successful attack on Russia\u2019s A-50 AWACS plane at the Ma\u010duli\u0161\u010dy airfield near Minsk in February 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Incidentally, that operation sparked a debate on whether the damaged radar was worth dozens of arrests with some of those detained probably being innocent.

On May 19, opposition politicians at a conference in Warsaw discussed using the force of arms to change the government in Belarus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In particular, Hienad\u017a Ma\u0144ko of Vola urged pro-democracy forces to align with his coalition\u2019s plan to organize a liberation army.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ja\u016dhien Ankud\u017aina\u016d of Chopi\u0107 Bajacca (Stop Being Afraid) said: “We won’t hold peace talks because they won’t talk to us, but we can create our own combat units and formations.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\n\n Ma\u0144ko speaking at the Warsaw conference\n <\/div>\n \n
\n Screenshot of the video broadcast<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Most speakers, however, expressed skepticism, dismissing the idea as unrealistic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Violence breeds violence<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The KGB must have put the transcript on \u0141uka\u0161enka’s desk. It is clear from his statements that he is well informed about what is going on in the opposition camp.

That the use of force is under discussion is no surprise \u2013 \u0141uka\u0161enka has relied on violence and intimidation since 1994 to hold on to power.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2020, millions voted for Cichano\u016dskaja, urging him to step down peacefully. Voters took to the street with flowers, but were met with batons, water cannons and riot police.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is absolutely clear now that the dictator would not go on his own and that his system, built on violence, can only yield to force. Supporters of radical action argue that people under tyranny have the right to revolt.

Meanwhile, \u0141uka\u0161enka’s security forces continue reprisals to stoke up fear. Police set up fake chat bots to trap those who want to join radical groups, and then post videos of their forced confessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In one operation, agents shot a suspect in the knees to stop a wave of arson attacks on railroad equipment.

Law enforcers use state-of-the-art technology to identify dissenters and strengthen digital totalitarianism. Underground resistance is almost impossible because of the security services\u2019 sweeping surveillance powers.

Despite propaganda claims, pro-democracy leaders have denied plans to bomb civilian enterprises or railway stations.

However, subversive attacks by radical groups cannot be completely ruled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

NATO reluctant to escalate<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

That some opponents consider taking up arms is a fact. But the ruler’s claim that neighboring countries are training armed militants for an invasion of Belarus does not hold water.

At present, only the KKR, a unit of Belarusian volunteer fighters in Ukraine, is a combat-ready unit, but it apparently lacks strength and is riddled by disunity. Most importantly, it is under the command of the Ukrainian General Intelligence Directorate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

KKR fighters have been deployed to Ukraine\u2019s Kharkiv region to reinforce defenses against advancing Russian troops.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kyiv treats the KKR as a fully-fledged Ukrainian unit and is unlikely to let it conduct operations in Belarus, especially now that Russia has launched the offensive.

Paspalitaje Ru\u0161e\u0144nie, a network of patriotic self-defense training camps in Poland and Lithuania, is low in numbers and funding. Its mission is spiritual, historical and physical education of Belarusians abroad. Its leaders denie plans to invade Belarus.

The host governments may be wary of such groups. A NATO state would never integrate them into its armed forces, let alone train and equip for an attack on Russia\u2019s ally.

Quite the contrary, Warsaw and Vilnius are fortifying borders for fear of a possible Russian or Russian-Belarusian attack, so there is no point for them to provoke Belarus and Russia, which may retaliate with a nuclear strike, as \u0141uka\u0161enka has repeatedly threatened.

Incidentally, Vilnius reacted with great concern to a recent claim by Belarusian KGB chief Ivan Tertel that Lithuania had masterminded a drone attack on Belarus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Exaggerated threats<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka clearly exaggerates the immediate threat from exiled oppositionists.

His security services and propaganda engage in a sophisticated information war, trying to zombify Belarusians, demonize political opponents and smear neighboring countries.

Caught up in the conspiracy of their own making, officials are winding themselves up. Already paranoid, \u0141uka\u0161enka is fed scare stories by his security services. He sees every flying crow as an enemy drone.

Official statements offer little clue as to what \u0141uka\u0161enka discussed with Russian President Vladimir Putin and his generals at the Kremlin on May 9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moscow may be looking to involve him deeper in its aggressive plans. If Minsk crosses red lines, Kyiv may to retaliate and assign that mission to the KKR.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\n\n \u0141uka\u0161enka and Putin at the May 9 celebrations in Moscow\n <\/div>\n \n
\n (\u0141uka\u0161enka's press service)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

NATO’s fears of an attack by Putin-\u0141uka\u0161enka’s forces on the Suvalki Gap seem exaggerated too. But who knows what the Kremlin can do in a few years, if it makes gains in Ukraine and builds up its military power.

\u0141uka\u0161enka is not eager to go to war, but Putin may not even ask him for his opinion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Faced with an onslaught, NATO countries may eventually change their view on paramilitary groups associated with the Belarusian opposition.

A big question mark is hanging over the sustainability of the regimes in Moscow and Minsk. As long as Russia remains strong, \u0141uka\u0161enka will stick with the Kremlin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anyway, the standoff with developed countries is weakening Russia.

Rivalry with the capitalist world, first of all with the USA, was too much for the USSR to handle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russia’s economy is much smaller, and sanctions are said to undermine its technological potential.

If Moscow falters, a crisis of \u0141uka\u0161enka’s regime is inevitable. Amid uncertainty and turbulence, a split within the elite and confusion of security forces, a few hundred trained and armed fighters can make a big difference.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka feels threatened. That is why he keeps nudging his law enforcement officers to keep their eyes open. That is why the world seems to him ungrateful and hostile, ready to take away his power from him at any moment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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