{"id":87535,"date":"2024-05-28T13:29:15","date_gmt":"2024-05-28T10:29:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/87535\/"},"modified":"2024-05-28T13:29:17","modified_gmt":"2024-05-28T10:29:17","slug":"iron-curtain-to-descend-if-ukraine-conflict-is-frozen","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/87535\/","title":{"rendered":"Iron curtain to descend if Ukraine conflict is frozen"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Reuters<\/em>\u2019 recent report about Russia’s alleged readiness to negotiate a ceasefire is probably just Kremlin’s propaganda, but if it really happened, Belarus would face new challenges.
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A ceasefire would limit Minsk’s direct involvement in the war and mitigate the risk of a spillover into Belarus. However, an iron curtain would descend across Europe. Minsk’s dependence on Russia would increase, while the chances of democratization in Belarus would become elusive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Putin ready for reconciliation?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

During Vladimir Putin’s surprise visit to Belarus last week, Reuters reported, citing its sources close to the Russian president, that Putin has no plans to attack NATO and is even willing to discuss a ceasefire in Ukraine on condition that the border would run along the current front line.

The report is largely consistent with public statements by Putin and other Russian officials. However, the West and Kyiv see such proposals as an attempt to divert attention from the Kremlin’s true intentions.

The recent reshuffle at the Russian defense ministry, purges among generals, incidents at the borders with Finland and the Baltic states, the continuing flow of migrants through Russia and Belarus to the EU and the exercise involving non-strategic nuclear weapons cast doubt on the Kremlin’s alleged peaceful intentions.

With its defiant and aggressive actions, Moscow is trying to demoralize Western and Ukrainian society, sow panic and fear of an escalation.

Moscow’s peace initiatives should not be ignored, but neither should they be overestimated. Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov was quick to refute the Reuters report. But what if a ceasefire was achieved on Moscow\u2019s conditions?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Minsk out of the game<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Reuters<\/em> did not provide details of a possible ceasefire agreement, noting only that Moscow intends to retain all Ukrainian territory currently under its control. There is no talk of a long-term peace or a fundamental breakthrough.

A possible ceasefire would not address the causes of the war or provide the basis for a sustainable peace. A new escalation would only be a matter of time.

While the Minsk-2 agreements were an international triumph for Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka in 2015, he cannot expect a similar success now. The Belarusian strongman is unlikely to sit at the negotiating table, while peace talks in Minsk seem unrealistic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some risks would diminish, others would increase
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Belarus has faced the risk of a spillover since February 2022. Labeled a co-aggressor, \u0141uka\u0161enka lends a helping hand to Putin, and the Belarusian economy is serving the Russian war machine. However, Belarusian troops remain at bay and hostilities have not spilled over into Belarus yet.

This danger remains as long as the war continues. A ceasefire would not to improve Minsk’s ties with Kyiv and the West, but it would reduce military risks for Belarus in the short term.

This would be perhaps the only benefit for \u0141uka\u0161enka, who does not want to take a more active role in the war, but he would face serious challenges if the conflict is frozen. After all, he has largely adapted to the current circumstances and would probably prefer to maintain the status quo.

If hostilities in Ukraine were ceased, Belarus’ strategic importance to Moscow would diminish, and the Russian economic subsidies to Belarus might decrease.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Kremlin would intensify its push for integration. An iron curtain would finally descend across Europe with Belarus and Russia blocking themselves from contact with the EU. It would be difficult to break through it in the foreseeable future.

The US and EU sanctions would remain in place, while Russia would expand its cultural, ideological, and political influence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although these trends would not lead to the collapse of \u0141uka\u0161enka’s system, they would undermine his position, and the threat of Belarus’ incorporation into Russia would only increase.

The chances of democratization in Belarus would be even slimmer for years, perhaps even decades to come.

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Thus, the cessation of hostilities in Ukraine would reduce the danger of war for Belarus, but would also give rise to challenges and could further complicate the prospects of pro-democracy forces.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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