{"id":87717,"date":"2024-05-29T10:53:21","date_gmt":"2024-05-29T07:53:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/87717\/"},"modified":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","modified_gmt":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","slug":"coordination-council-election-a-failure-or-a-chance","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/87717\/","title":{"rendered":"Coordination Council election: a failure or a chance?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Just 6,723 Belarusians, or about 0.1 percent of the Belarusian electorate, voted in the May 25-27 election for the Coordination Council.
<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n \"\"\n
\n
\n\n Pavie\u0142 \u0141atu\u0161ka (right) and Juryj Hubarevi\u010d. Their coalition won most seats in the Coordination Council election.\n <\/div>\n \n
\n (reform.news)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Government propaganda may ridicule the poll as failure, while opposition politician Pavie\u0142 \u0141atu\u0161ka linked the low turnout to the atmosphere of fear amid political reprisals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Minsk plays hard ball<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The government did its best to discourage Belarusians from voting. It brought extremism-related charges against the 257 candidates and intimidated their relatives in Belarus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The voting platform was targeted by a massive DDoS attack, and access to VPN services was restricted in Belarus.

Some observers wondered why the government was taking a hard line against the emigrant forum that propaganda mocks as weak and unimportant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One should remember that the council was originally established amid mass protests in August 2020 to facilitate the transfer of power from Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka to his opponents after the disputed presidential election.

The Belarusian ruler obviously realizes that in a new crisis it can claim the right to govern the country. That is why the Committee for State Security (KGB) has been disseminating horror stories about exiled opponents planning to seize at least one district center, declare themselves the government and call in NATO troops.

According to preliminary data, the Vola (Freedom) group, which declared its aim to create a liberation army, was awarded six seats on the Coordination Council. Niezale\u017enyja Bie\u0142arusy (Independent Belarusians), also with a liberation agenda, was given eight seats.

Concerns about armed resistance groups were the main reason for the Belarusian government\u2019s intensified attacks on Belarusians abroad.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Little interest in election<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Fear reigning Belarus and additional intimidation measures certainly discouraged voters.

However, most Belarusians were not interested in this election in the first place. Hundreds of thousands who left the country after 2020 are now based abroad and relatively safe, but most of them did not vote.

In August 2020, Belarusians took to the street hoping to overthrow the regime, whereas now even those who wholeheartedly support change realize that there is nothing they can do at this point and have little hope for the opposition abroad.

Besides, the Coordination Council may seem unconvincing to many. \u015aviat\u0142ana Cichano\u016dskaja and her team are at least trying to do something concrete, whereas the previous Coordination Council is remembered mainly for internal squabbles and dragging its feet on the poll, originally scheduled for February as an alternative to the Belarusian government\u2019s local and parliamentary elections. At that time, the opposition poll could generate more interest.

The very idea of a proto-parliament in exile has been considerably discredited. During the election campaign, many candidates were asked why the Coordination Council was needed in the first place, and not all of them were able to explain convincingly.

Some questioned the purpose of the proto-parliament. Are they going to write and shelve laws? For how many years?

In general, the idea of an opposition government in exile seems controversial, especially now that almost four years have passed after the uprising.

The opposition risks to end up imitating vigorous activity. Opponents should take a more realistic approach and act asymmetrically. Otherwise, they may completely lose touch with voters.

Most independent Belarusian media outlets provided extensive coverage for the election, maybe even more than it deserved. Candidates were offered air time, and debates were held on a number of media platforms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Prospects<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Anyway, thousands of votes is a progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The previous council was formed of delegates from various, including marginal, opposition groups, so observers could question, “Who are all these people?”

The council\u2019s legitimacy will be debated throughout its two-year mandate.

Those elected will argue that their mandate has a seal of approval from the most progressive and courageous Belarusians. Critics will say that only a handful of people voted.

It remains to be seen how whether Western partners will take the council seriously.

Opposition politicians should analyze what messages resonated with Belarusians and how to improve their platforms and strategies.

It is unclear how the council will build its relations with Cichano\u016dskaja’s team. Many saw the election as an attempt by individual politicians to challenge Cichano\u016dskaja.

Pavie\u0142 \u0141atu\u0161ka, an ambitious and charismatic politician, and his associates have the largest faction with 28 seats. He can form an alliance with the Prakopje\u016d- Jahora\u016d coalition. Je\u016drapiejski Vybar (European Choice), led by Alaksandar Dabravolski, a senior political adviser to Cichano\u016dskaja, has only eight seats.

Opposition politicians must make sure their competition for influence does not harm the pro-democracy movement.

All these assumptions can be wrong, and the council will shine with political maturity and constructiveness. The cards are now in their hands.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n
\n \"\"