{"id":89791,"date":"2024-06-10T12:50:45","date_gmt":"2024-06-10T09:50:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/89791\/"},"modified":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","modified_gmt":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","slug":"officials-preparing-to-re-elect-lukasenka","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/89791\/","title":{"rendered":"Officials preparing to re-elect \u0141uka\u0161enka"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Belarus is to hold a presidential election no later than July 20, 2025, Ihar Karpienka, chairman of the central election commission, said on June 5, emphasizing the need for tight security during the poll.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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“We have already done a lot to ensure security. We are closely cooperating with all the security ministries and agencies within their competence. You know that all polling stations are guarded by police officers, we monitor information security and safeguard the central election commission\u2019s website,” Karpienka told election officials.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

February 25 rehearsal<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The February 2024 parliamentary and local elections exposed the raw nerves of officials who nearly lost power in 2020.

In the run-up, Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka demonized his political opponents, accusing them of plotting to overthrow his government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Police trained to round up troublemakers, and surveillance cameras were installed to monitor access to polling stations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mobile groups formed of elite police, police academy cadets, police veterans and vigilantes were on high alert, as if authorities were expecting opposition leader \u015aviat\u0142ana Cichano\u016dskaja to drive up in an SUV with a heavy machine gun and demand voting records.

However, the opposition ignored those elections because it was just a ritual with a predetermined outcome.

One can assume that officials and law enforcers will be vigilant before next year’s presidential poll. The incumbent is likely to whip up hysteria, accusing his opponents and the West of conspiracies to oust him.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Election tactics<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

During his 30-year rule, \u0141uka\u0161enka occasionally loosened the screws before presidential elections, hoping to cozy up to the West.

In 2006, for instance, he allowed opponents to demonstrate and set up a tent camp in downtown Minsk. In 2010, the central election commission registered as many as 10 candidates. \u0141uka\u0161enka later told lawmakers that “we democratized it to a point that it made not only you, but also me, the person who makes decisions, sick.”

In 2020, however, he locked up all of his main rivals before the race, allowing only Cichano\u016dskaja to run and hoping he could defeat her easily. But that was a blunder.

Voters will not see any opponents on the ballot in 2025. D\u017amitryj Ku\u010duk, the only opposition candidate who attempted to run in 2024, was arrested and is still held behind the bars.

\u0141uka\u0161enka is likely to pick political nonentities and block any bids by pro-government politicians who can somehow energize voters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Putin unlikely to replace \u0141uka\u0161enka<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Before every presidential election, observers usually speculate whether the Kremlin plans to replace \u0141uka\u0161enka.

Political opponents have expressed doubt about his fitness. Observers noticed that on May 9 in Moscow he lagged behind others as he walked to the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier.

At 70, he probably has illnesses, but probably nothing serious, since he has the best doctors, drugs and state-of-the-art equipment at his disposal.

In any case, there is still no sign of a successor, while the failed experiment of former Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev has discouraged \u0141uka\u0161enka from rushing the transfer of power.

He may be thinking about it, but probably only in case of a sudden illness, and probably he hopes to put one of his sons in charge.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has no reason to replace his ally with Natalla Ka\u010danava or someone else who may not even be up to the task. \u0141uka\u0161enka has achieved his goal of making himself indispensable for Moscow. There is only one politician left in the country. Others just praise him, take notes and follow his orders. They are not good enough to govern the country.

So, unless a black swan event occurs, he will leave nothing to chance or surprise. The only question is about the percentage of votes to be announced for him and whether \u0141uka\u0161enka will dare to surpass Putin’s recent record of 87.28 percent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

New challenges for Cichano\u016dskaja<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Cichano\u016dskaja, who was forced to flee Belarus after she disputed the official results of the 2020 presidential election and claimed to be president-elect, might face uncertainty after the 2025 poll.

Her team maintains that the forthcoming poll will not be free and fair, and therefore will not affect her legitimacy. It may have a point, especially since there is virtually no chance for an opposition to participate in the upcoming election.

However, Cichano\u016dskaja’s legitimacy cannot last indefinitely. It will be slowly eroding as time goes by after 2020.

Meanwhile, political reprisals have forced opponents inside the country to adopt a strategy of self-preservation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fewer Belarusians follow politics, even among the new wave of emigrants, as the recent election for the Coordinating Council showed, with only 6,723 votes reported.

Cichano\u016dskaja has somewhat faded because of her camp’s mistakes, failure to influence developments in Belarus and overreliance on the 2020 momentum. Uncertainty and reprisals may have taken a heavy toll on her rating, which is impossible to measure accurately.

There is no miracle strategy, but that is no consolation for people disillusioned with the opposition.

2025 may give Western partners a pretext to revise their support for the Belarusian opposition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

New leaders emerge at times of change<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

As the five-year electoral cycle draws to a close, Cichano\u016dskaja may face tighter competition within her camp. However, no one can replace her as leader without a detriment to the opposition cause.

The best thing the Belarusian pro-democracy forces can do now is not to get bogged down in infighting, although debates and disagreements among them are a natural phenomenon.

They should scale down grandstanding, streamline the structure, continue to represent Belarusians in the West and improve public relations to be ready for the time of change. It may come suddenly like the end of the Soviet Union.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka has made it clear that he will not repeat the mistakes of Mikhail Gorbachev. But even brutal dictatorships fall apart quickly without reform.

New leaders emerge at such historical moments. In 2020, Cichano\u016dskaja came out of the blue, while the mainstream opposition was in decline. So perhaps new people, unknown to us today, will come to the forefront when the time comes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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