{"id":90708,"date":"2024-06-14T13:12:01","date_gmt":"2024-06-14T10:12:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/90708\/"},"modified":"2024-06-14T13:12:04","modified_gmt":"2024-06-14T10:12:04","slug":"tensions-flare-with-yerevan-after-lukasenkas-karabakh-tour","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/90708\/","title":{"rendered":"Tensions flare with Yerevan after \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s Karabakh tour"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Minsk and Yerevan have recalled their ambassadors amid tension over Belarus\u2019 support for Azerbaijan during the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said he or any other Armenian official will not travel to Belarus as long as Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka is in power.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\n\n Nikol Pashinyan, Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka and Vladimir Putin at a Eurasian Economic Union summit in Sochi on May 14, 2018. At the time, \u0141uka\u0161enka said that there were no problems in the relations between Belarus and Armenia and would be no problems in the future.\n <\/div>\n \n
\n (\u0141uka\u0161enka press office)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Pashinyan under pressure<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Pashinyan made his remarks as protesters gathered outside the parliament to demand his resignation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The protesters are unhappy with Yerevan’s agreement to demarcate the border with Azerbaijan, leaving four villages under Baku’s control. Armenians have been deeply frustrated with their country\u2019s defeat in the fight for Nagorno-Karabakh.

After losing the war, the Armenian prime minister took all the blame for unpopular decisions as many people were looking for a scapegoat.

Pashinyan is under heavy psychological pressure. His verbal attack on \u0141uka\u0161enka may have been partially driven by emotions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It was the first time he publicly commented on the Belarusian ruler’s May 15-17 visit to Azerbaijan as tension reached a boiling point.

\u201cA [Collective Security Treaty Organization] CSTO country leader states that he participated in preparations for the war, encouraged, believed in and wished Azerbaijan victory,\u201d Pashinyan said on June 12.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAfter that, am I supposed to meet with the leader of Belarus in the CSTO format to discuss something? . . . From now on, I will never go to Belarus again as long as Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka remains president.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

During his visit, not only \u0141uka\u0161enka demonstrated his friendship with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, but he also toured Karabakh.

The Belarusian ruler welcomed Baku’s victory and made it clear what side he was on.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“I recalled our conversation before the war, before your war of liberation, when we talked philosophically over dinner. Then we came to the conclusion that it was possible to win the war. It’s important. It is very important to hold on to this victory,” he told Aliyev.

Pashinyan kept silent for two weeks before letting his anger out. Minsk and Yerevan recalled ambassadors on June 13.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Little brother takes the blow for both<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Armenia’s possible withdrawal from the CSTO, a failed anti-NATO alliance, remains in the spotlight.

“If someone claims that the Armenian prime minister said that Armenia will leave the CSTO, he is mistaken,” said Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan.

Yerevan obviously has a grudge against the CSTO for not defending Armenia in its conflict with Azerbaijan, which was backed by Turkey.

On the other hand, Yerevan is probably afraid of provoking Moscow with sharp statements and actions. In February, Pashinyan said that his country had frozen its participation in the CSTO, but there was no talk of withdrawal.

Disappointed with its CSTO partners, Yerevan is cozying up to the West. However, it seems to be trying to distance itself from Moscow slowly so as not to provoke too harsh a reaction.

“I know of at least two CSTO member countries that have been involved in preparing the war against us,” Pashinyan told the parliament on May 22, apparently referring to Russia and Belarus.

It is clear that the Kremlin calls the shots in the CSTO, so it is too risky for Pashinyan to openly criticize Russian President Vladimir Putin, so he turned his fire on \u0141uka\u0161enka instead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Money doesn’t stink<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Pashinyan said he would not go to Belarus as long as \u0141uka\u0161enka is in power. Moreover, “from now on no official representative of Armenia will go to Belarus. Never.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n


The Armenian prime minister skipped a November security summit in Minsk. In the run-up to the event, \u0141uka\u0161enka tried to persuade him to come and later criticized Pashinyan for his refusal.

In general, relations between the two leaders have been rancid from the beginning. The Belarusian ruler looks down on his Armenian partner, who came to power on a wave of street protests. Yerevan’s main problem with Minsk is that Belarus has sold arms to Azerbaijan.

In 2018, after Minsk supplied Polonez multiple rocket launchers to Baku, \u0141uka\u0161enka said that he had offered these weapons to Yerevan too, but it refused to buy them.

A year earlier, speaking about military cooperation with Azerbaijan, \u0141uka\u0161enka said: “I don’t want to apologize to anyone about the nature of our cooperation. I just want to say that our relations do not violate any international treaties.”

Minsk is clearly guided by the principle “money does not stink”. That is why it willingly trades and generally makes friends with the oil-rich Azerbaijani autocracy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russian clout<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Pashinyan insists that \u0141uka\u0161enka should apologize. He said that Yerevan can remain a CSTO member if Belarus leaves the bloc or \u0141uka\u0161enka “finds such words of apology and explanations that would be acceptable to the Armenian people.”

Pashinyan surely realizes that the Belarusian ruler has no regrets.

It is not about apologies. Minsk does not want to miss out on opportunities for profitable dealings with Baku. During his Azerbaijan trip, \u0141uka\u0161enka discussed Belarusian companies\u2019 possible involvement in the reconstruction of Nagorno-Karabakh.

\u0141uka\u0161enka really cherishes his personal friendship with Aliyev. He boasted more than once that Aliyev had lent him $200 million to pay off a debt to Gazprom in 2010 during a gas dispute between Minsk and Moscow.

Most importantly,  Armenia’s future membership in the CSTO does not depend on \u0141uka\u0161enka’s statements or apologies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

First of all, Moscow dominates this organization, while Minsk is just playing along. Yerevan, by all appearances, has decided to gradually leave this Moscow-led alliance.

A big question is what Moscow can do to keep Armenia in its sphere of influence. It has already warned that Armenia could follow Ukraine’s path.

Meanwhile, opposition leader \u015aviat\u0142ana Cichano\u016dskaia took advantage of the escalation to express hope for closer ties between Belarusian pro-democracy forces and Armenia. \u0141uka\u0161enka had betrayed Armenia just as he had betrayed Ukraine, she said.

Cichano\u016dskaja had already met with Pashinyan, Mirzoyan and parliament speaker Alen Simonyan. This is a good opportunity to capitalize on those contacts. But Yerevan has more pressing issues than relations with the Belarusian opposition in exile.

Moscow is unlikely to let Armenia, and Belarus if government changes, to spin themselves out of its orbit.

\u0141uka\u0161enka’s fall would be only the beginning of a long journey and a major challenge for the pro-democracy forces. The shadow of the empire will hang over both Armenia and Belarus for long.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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