{"id":94043,"date":"2024-07-05T08:44:27","date_gmt":"2024-07-05T05:44:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/94043\/"},"modified":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","modified_gmt":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","slug":"political-prisoners-any-hope-of-breaking-ice","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/94043\/","title":{"rendered":"Political prisoners: any hope of breaking ice?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka has released several seriously ill political prisoners. The Belarusian strongman announced the move at an Independence Day ceremony in Minsk on July 2.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\n (Hasan Almasi \/ unsplash.com)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

While an amnesty law adopted recently does not apply to inmates branded by law enforcers as extremists and terrorists, the head of state has powers to pardon prisoners regardless of labels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Will regime warm to West?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Opposition leader \u015aviat\u0142ana Cichano\u016dskaja said on Xthat more than 200 political prisoners on her humanitarian list were in critical condition and “must be released unconditionally.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But it does not work that way. The ruler does not accept ultimatums, especially from someone who has no tools of pressure.

\u0141uka\u0161enka has a reputation as a ruthless dictator who does not care about political prisoners\u2019 ill health.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For example, imprisoned opposition politician Ryhor Kastusie\u016d, whom \u0141uka\u0161enka has known since the 1980s as both managed state farms in the Mahilo\u016d region, has had cancer for quite a while, but the Belarusian ruler ignored appeals for his release.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Therefore, he must have some kind of plan now.

He may want to improve his image a little, humanize it before the 2025 presidential election.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is clear that sanctions hurt, no matter how frequently he says that they only make his regime stronger.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He must be also concerned about his government\u2019s total dependence on Moscow. So it would make sense for him to at least try to improve relations with the West and find some room for political maneuver.

On July 2, \u0141uka\u0161enka said his government was “still ready to start a constructive dialogue with the West.” On the surface, his conditions seem reasonable: “respect for the sovereignty of Belarus, national traditions, our historical memory and the people’s choice.”

The problem, however, is what meaning he puts into these words. Take, for example, the notion of “electoral sovereignty” written down into the National Security Concept. What it actually means is that officials can rig elections while others should stay out of it, or it would be considered interference. The talk of \u201cpeople\u2019s choice\u201d is simply ridiculous now that all dissent has been crushed.

In short, \u0141uka\u0161enka insists on the acceptance of his dictatorship. He is probably afraid of loosening screws in the run-up to the presidential election. He will find it difficult to improve ties with the West without making any concessions.

He stressed in the address that he “does not intend to give orders to the border guards, the military and others” to catch illegal immigrants at the border with Poland.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He linked his refusal to cooperate on migration to sanctions that the EU had imposed on Belarus over allegations of human rights abuses, the forced landing of a Ryanair plane and Minsk\u2019s complicity in the Russian invasion of Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cYou tied a noose around our neck, and yet you are forcing us to defend you from these poor people,\u201d he said.
Attempts by migrants to cross the Belarusian-Polish border illegally have plunged amid China’s reported concerns about goods transit. But Minsk is obviously still doing its best to unsettle the EU and NATO neighbors.

Therefore, no miracles should be expected in relations with the West although Minsk is clearly interested in improving ties both for economic and political reasons.

Meanwhile, most European politicians are unwilling to negotiate with \u0141uka\u0161enka. They do not trust him and call him a puppet of Russian President Vladimir Putin. There is a widespread opinion that Belarus is already a province of Russia, so it is too late to do anything, except for letting the iron curtain separate the two camps.

Besides, in contrast to 2020, Belarus is low on the European agenda. European leaders are much more concerned about Ukraine, and have their hands full with problems in their own countries.

Human rights activist Leanid Sudalenka, who spent time in Belarusian prison, called on French President Emmanuel Macron to engage with \u201cthe undemocratic government of Belarus” to secure the release of Nobel Prize winner Ale\u015b Bialacki. But will Macron, faced with a major setback in parliamentary elections, respond?

Having said that, we know almost nothing about possible behind-the-scenes contacts between Paris (and not only Paris) and Minsk. According to unconfirmed reports, they do exist.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Will sanctions help?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Last year, Belarusian opposition veteran Zianon Pa\u017aniak appealed to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to exchange Russian prisoners of war for Belarusian political prisoners. But it did not work.

Many opposition politicians pin their hopes on sanctions. So far, however, the Belarusian economy has been growing despite the restrictions. The sanctions, which were supposed to force \u0141uka\u0161enka into making concessions, have only made him angry and recalcitrant.

And if Kyiv and Moscow somehow agree on a ceasefire, which seems possible at the moment, the tightening of sanctions would be out of the question.

Some opposition politicians insist on flexibility. If the ruler releases at least some political prisoners, it is necessary to ease the sanctions, they say.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

No miracle solution<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The sanctions were imposed by the West to punish the Belarusian government for specific wrongdoings: reprisals, the forced landing of a plane carrying EU citizens, the migration crisis and Minsk\u2019s complicity in the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

\u0141uka\u0161enka keeps helping Moscow wage war, declares that he has no intention of stopping migrants and continues reprisals. So the West sees no reason to lift the sanctions.

It is hard to imagine that the opposition leaders who have been calling for tougher sanctions for so long will suddenly call for the opposite.

Some politicians oppose any dealings with the regime. Meanwhile, a refusal to negotiate for the release of political prisoners seems to many observers a dubious stance.
There is no magic formula. However, some prisoners have been freed with the help of the West. Most were foreign citizens, but not all.

Therefore, politicians should be knocking on every Western door to involve their public figures in efforts to free Belarusian prisoners.

Skeptics may argue that it does not make sense to bargain if \u0141uka\u0161enka can just take new prisoners. This argument does not hold water. First of all, at least some people can be saved. Second, if the ruler enters into negotiations, he might temper his repressive zeal at least a little bit.

Third, what if a black swan event occurs? What if the foreign policy context suddenly changes dramatically? What if \u0141uka\u0161enka’s successor seriously thinks about building relations with the West and stops reprisals? In that case, those who were saved earlier would be free but could not have survived otherwise.

So, some exiled opponents should probably revise their rhetoric and, more importantly, their priorities.

We should not expect a breakthrough, but it makes sense to do as much as possible for each prisoner.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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