{"id":95402,"date":"2024-07-14T12:11:54","date_gmt":"2024-07-14T09:11:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/95402\/"},"modified":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","modified_gmt":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","slug":"lukasenkas-30-year-rule-belarus-away-from-disaster-but-far-behind-eu-neighbors","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/95402\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s 30-year rule: Belarus away from disaster but far behind EU neighbors"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The Belarusian ruler\u2019s meeting last week with first ladies from African countries was illustrative of a shift of Minsk\u2019s diplomatic energies after an open breach with the West. The Belarusian government is at loggerheads with its neighbors Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Ukraine.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\n\n \u0141uka\u0161enka meets Auxillia Mnangagwa, the first lady of Zimbabwe, in Minsk on July 10\n <\/div>\n \n
\n (\u0141uka\u0161enka's press office)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka responsible for tension with Europe<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Thirty years ago, Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka led the country away from disaster, Natalla Ka\u010danava, chairwoman of the upper chamber of the Belarusian National Assembly, told Oluremi Tinubu, the Nigerian first lady who visited Minsk last week.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ka\u010danava actually quoted the title of Lukashenka’s 1994 presidential campaign platform, “Leading the People Away from the Abyss.” But where has he taken the country during his 30 years in power?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

His 1994 platform stated, “The president will make an effort to raise Belarus\u2019 international prestige and establish and maintain at an appropriate level its reputation as a reliable and promising partner, an active participant in global, sub-regional and regional politics.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In fact, \u0141uka\u0161enka has reduced the country\u2019s reputation among democracies to zero. Instead of forging beneficial ties with geographically-close European Union countries and Ukraine, a premium market for Belarus before it facilitated Russia\u2019s full-scale invasion, he is cozying up to China and other counties of the Global South.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In January 1994, shortly before Belarus\u2019 first presidential election, US President Bill Clinton visited Minsk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Western leaders now shun the cantankerous Belarusian dictator, but back then the West pinned a great hope on the first democratically-elected president of independent Belarus. Leaders invited \u0141uka\u0161enka to visit European capitals hoping to draw Belarus closer to their camp.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In March 1995, he flew to Brussels to sign an agreement on partnership and cooperation with the EU. He declared that Belarus had made “the first important step towards its main goal – accession to the European Union”. He visited France in July 1996. But relations with Europe deteriorated rapidly as \u0141uka\u0161enka began to tighten his grip on power. The agreement with the EU was never ratified, because the West would not recognize the 1996 referendum that gave him sweeping powers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sikorski\u2019s generous offer<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka falsely claims that the West has always sought to overthrow him and tear his country apart because of his independent policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In fact, the West has made quite a few attempts to forge ties with Minsk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

European countries used to buy petroleum products from Belarus. Poles supplied all kinds of goods to Belarusians, and Lithuania benefited from the transshipment of Belarusian potash fertilizers through Klaipeda.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Most notably, before the 2010 presidential election, Polish Foreign Minister Rados\u0142aw Sikorski and his German counterpart visited Minsk to offer \u20ac3 billion in EU assistance on condition that \u0141uka\u0161enka holds a fair race.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Instead, he sent security forces to attack peaceful protesters and locked up opposition presidential candidates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sikorski has a completely different offer on the table now –  closing the border for cargoes if Minsk does not stop using illegal migrants for destabilizing its EU neighbors. Polish President Andrzej Duda has even reached out to Chinese President Xi Jinping over \u0141uka\u0161enka\u2019s hostile policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Western politicians no longer hope for a deal with him. They are trying to find his weaknesses and hit him with sanctions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The neighbors are fencing themselves off because of an epic failure of his foreign policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pa\u010dobut a major sticking point<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Analysts are wondering why \u0141uka\u0161enka released about two dozen political prisoners earlier this month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The West and opposition leaders do not believe that he did so out of pity. China might have put some pressure on him to ease tension and secure the transit of Chinese goods through Belarus to Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, \u0141uka\u0161enka is adamant about keeping Polish minority activist Andrej Pa\u010dobut (Andrzej Poczobut) locked out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For security reasons, human rights activists have not yet disclosed most of the names of those released, but it appears that Pa\u010dobut remains behind bars.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A man of courage, he refuses to appeal to the Belarusian ruler for pardon. In the past, \u0141uka\u0161enka released political prisoners without such petitions in exchange for concessions from the West.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Warsaw keeps up pressure on Belarus. On July 10, it slowed the passage of trucks from Belarus, citing EU sanctions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A few weeks earlier, Poland suspended freight traffic through the Ma\u0142aszewicze terminal for 33 hours under the pretext of stricter inspections.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pa\u010dobut\u2019s release could ease the tension with Warsaw. The number of illegal migrants storming the Polish border has already dropped significantly in recent weeks, which indirectly indicates that Minsk wants to avoid a complete closure of the border with Poland. In any case, Minsk is unlikely to achieve a major breakthrough in relations with neighbors and the West as long as \u0141uka\u0161enka keeps his tight grip on power. He refuses to release more political prisoners and stop reprisals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Eastward shift<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

To offset failures in the West, Minsk has shifted its energies to the Global South. Belarus joined the Shanghai Cooperation Organization earlier this month in a move trumpeted by propaganda as a major breakthrough. But skeptics say that membership does not automatically bring economic benefits.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Minsk has good political relations with some Global South countries that also have issues with democracy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Most of these countries are poor, except for their leaders, and corrupt, so there is not much money to be made from trading with them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile China, despite its declarations of partnership, is discontent with the Belarusian-Polish tension. Beijing last week expressed hope that the countries would resolve their differences through dialogue and consultation based on mutual respect.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In April, \u0141uka\u0161enka berated his subordinates for “failing to meet the targets for exports to friendly countries of the Far Arc.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The largest part of Belarusian exports goes to Russia, mainly because of the war. If Russia agrees on ceasefire in Ukraine, its market may shrink for Belarus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The main problem is that Belarus\u2019 dependence on Moscow has become disastrous.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although it is true that in three decades Belarus has pulled itself out of the abyss of poverty, the neighboring EU countries are far ahead in economic development and the gap is widening. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Belarus has found itself on the brink of another disaster being one step away from ceding its sovereignty to Russia. On the 30th anniversary of his election victory, \u0141uka\u0161enka interrupted his vacation to meet the wives of African presidents. He expressed hope that their husbands will also come to Minsk. Not much to show for foreign policy credentials.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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