{"id":96212,"date":"2024-07-18T09:55:52","date_gmt":"2024-07-18T06:55:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/96212\/"},"modified":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","modified_gmt":"2026-04-15T13:35:32","slug":"border-tensions-lukasenka-blunts-alleged-ukrainian-threat-ryzankou-says-ball-is-in-polish-court","status":"publish","type":"longreads","link":"https:\/\/pozirk.online\/en\/longreads\/96212\/","title":{"rendered":"Border tensions: \u0141uka\u0161enka blunts alleged Ukrainian threat, Ry\u017eanko\u016d says ball is in Polish court"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The peace-loving government of Belarus has had terrible luck with its neighbors, with the exception of the Russian brothers, — this is the picture painted by the Belarusian propaganda.Alaksandar \u0141uka\u0161enka has just blunted a terrible Ukrainian threat, while the Poles are stirring up tension to pocket the money earmarked for the construction of fences, it claimed.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\n (Polish Border Guard)<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Scaremongering<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On July 13, \u0141uka\u0161enka retreated his troops from the Ukrainian border to their permanent bases, claiming that tension had eased. He said Ukraine, heeding Minsk’s warnings, also withdrew some of its forces.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Propaganda has cast him as a firm and peaceful man who skillfully handled a major crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pro-government analyst Alaksandar Markievi\u010d said that the de-escalation “once again showed how strong the gift of foresight and wisdom of the president of Belarus is.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Propaganda is trying to convince the public that the Ukrainians were planning to attack, but \u0141uka\u0161enka forced them to retreat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Committee for State Security (KGB) Chairman Ivan Tertel said that a month earlier Belarusian foreign intelligence had spotted a large contingent of Ukrainian armed forces in the areas bordering Belarus, including regular troops, the National Guard and police from Kyiv and some regional centers. Among other things, these units were allegedly involved in “additional mining of the territory.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As impressive as it sounds, the National Guard and police are law enforcement agencies. They are not trained for offensive operations. And the movement of troops could be just a rotation of units or training.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Remembering the attack of Russian troops on Kyiv from Belarus in February 2022, the Ukrainians are now mining their northern borders. In fact, Kyiv confirmed last month that it was fortifying its defenses at the border with Belarus. Struggling to contain Russian troops, Kyiv has absolutely no interest in provoking or attacking Belarus only to extend the front line by a thousand kilometers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“At some point we will have to establish relations with them”<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In general, \u0141uka\u0161enka has toned down his rhetoric on Ukraine, probably anticipating ceasefire talks between Kyiv and Moscow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The odds that Donald Trump will win this year’s US presidential election rose significantly after the assassination attempt last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump promises to quickly force Presidents Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky to make peace. Whether he will succeed or not, the Belarusian ruler would certainly like to be involved in any possible peace settlement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In late May, \u0141uka\u0161enka told propagandists to temper their rhetoric. “Why are you always picking at Ukraine? Don’t forget that one day we will have to establish relations with them.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

His negative attacks aimed at Zelensky have dried down a little recently.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On July 13, \u0141uka\u0161enka spoke of peace during his visit to the 56th Anti-aircraft Missile Regiment in the \u0141uniniec district.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“No matter how they [the Ukrainians] look askew at us, no matter how they criticize us . . . they almost call us enemies. For Ukrainians, we are not enemies. I have said that many times. These are our people, people like us, like Russians. We must come to terms as soon as possible.\u201d However, he added that he intended to discuss Ukraine with Putin soon. This means that Minsk will continue to follow Russia’s policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Beijing’s pressure<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, all sides engage in information warfare. The Ukrainian Center of National Resistance reported that “Belarusian law enforcement agencies are preparing to conduct so-called false-flag operations in the border zone with Ukraine . . . to show their Chinese counterparts their capabilities.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Indeed, Belarus and China are holding a joint military exercise near Brest. But it is somehow doubtful that the Minsk would involve the Chinese in a false-flag operation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With this exercise, Beijing demonstrates that its military power is already present at the EU border. But overall, China is interested in deescalating tension in the region because it needs to develop its Belt and Road initiative and trade with Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some experts believe that it was China that advised Minsk against flexing its muscles at the border with Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And Beijing is certainly encouraging the Belarusian leadership to find common ground with Warsaw, which is threatening to close the railway crossing for Chinese transits because of migrant attacks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Belarusian Foreign Minister Maksim Ry\u017eanko\u016d said last week that Belarus is ready for talks with Poland, but “the ball is in the Polish court.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ry\u017eanko\u016d also denied Warsaw\u2019s accusations that Belarusian security officers were involved in human trafficking.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIf you know where these camps are located [where migrants are allegedly trained for illegal border crossings], if you know Belarusian law enforcers who are in charge \u2013 do come here and indicate any site in Belarus, and we will provide you with access to debunk these fakes,\u201d he said. \u201cHowever, the Polish side rejected this proposal.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Since the beginning of the year, according to Pozirk’s<\/em> calculations based on data from border guards, Poland has stopped more than 20,000 attempts to cross the border illegally.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The migration crisis at the Belarus-EU border started in spring 2021 after \u0141uka\u0161enka, angered by EU sanctions, had indicated that Minsk would not prevent migrants from Africa and Asia from using Belarus as a route to the EU. Belarus\u2019 western neighbors call the migration crisis a \u201chybrid attack\u201d orchestrated by Minsk and Moscow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Negativity against Poland<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Ry\u017eanko\u016d cast the Polish authorities in a negative light. “Apparently, the Polish side is not very interested in solving this problem. And it probably plans to continue building up tension at the border\u201d because “someone is probably interested in pocketing the money earmarked for the construction of fences.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, despite the negativity towards Poland, Minsk seems to be responsive to Chinese pressure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In any case, illegal border crossing attempts plunged in the first week of July. Belarusian law enforcement agencies also said they rounded up groups of illegal migrants across the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Minsk would like to avoid the blockade of railway transit but does not want to be perceived as the one that caved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Warsaw\u2019s political demands linked to tensions at the border are unacceptable for Minsk, Ry\u017eanko\u016d stressed, in a reference to the demand for the release of Polish minority activist Andrzej Poczobut (Andrej Pa\u010dobut).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Minsk can secure good-neighborly relations with Poland by releasing Poczobut and ending its security forces\u2019 involvement in trafficking migrants to the border, Polish Foreign Minister Rados\u0142aw Sikorski said on June 22.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0141uka\u0161enka is adamant about keeping Pa\u010dobut locked out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For security reasons, human rights activists have not yet disclosed most of the names of those released, but it appears that Pa\u010dobut remains behind bars.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A man of courage, he refuses to appeal to the Belarusian ruler for pardon. In the past, \u0141uka\u0161enka released political prisoners without such petitions in exchange for concessions from the West.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Warsaw keeps up pressure on Belarus. On July 10, it slowed the passage of trucks from Belarus, citing EU sanctions. A few weeks earlier, Poland suspended freight traffic through the Ma\u0142aszewicze terminal for 33 hours under the pretext of stricter inspections.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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