Russian drone incursions into Belarus caused a stir last week. On October 3, three military drones crossed the border from Ukraine into the Homiel region, according to Biełaruski Hajun. One unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) crashed in Kalinkavičy, while Alaksandar Łukašenka’s helicopter was flying in another part of the country.
Peaceful skies promise
Although Łukašenka acknowledged that stray drones come from both Ukraine and Russia, he usually avoids discussing Russian incursions.
However, during a meeting with residents in Parachonsk, Pinsk district, on October 4, he emphasized that his forces had shot down both Russian and Ukrainian drones over Belarus. He added that drones often lose their bearings either because they are not piloted correctly or are affected by electronic warfare.
The Belarusian Air/Air Defense Forces have been responding to frequent UAV incursions in recent months. Attack helicopters and fighter jets have been deployed in response to drone threats.
In July, a drone flew close to a venue for the Słavianski Bazar music festival. An air alert was triggered in Mahiloŭ, and drones were also shot down over Homiel in September.
Fortunately, no one was injured by the wreckage of the downed drone last week.
Łukašenka casts himself as a hero
At the Parachonsk meeting, Łukašenka was asked about the drones “spotted near his helicopter.” Questions at such events are usually carefully scripted, and the Belarusian ruler seized the opportunity for a PR stunt, praising his pilots for handling the drones effectively.
He claimed it would have been a grave mistake for the Ukrainians to shoot down his helicopter because it would lead to war. In reality, Łukašenka’s helicopter was far from the area where the drones were flying.
The Belarusian leader also accused his exiled opponents of using the drone incursions to create panic.
Stoking war fears
Meanwhile, Łukašenka is trying to energize the electorate with a promise of “peaceful skies” in the lead-up to next year’s presidential election.
His top priority, he told the people of Parachonsk, is to prevent Belarus from being dragged into the Russian-Ukrainian war. He is positioning himself as the only one who can keep the country safe.
However, his speeches often shift between contradictory ideas. He warns of imminent war threats but also exudes confidence and calm.
Łukašenka told residents that he was keeping an eye on Ukraine to prevent an invasion similar to the one in 1941, essentially equating Ukraine with Nazi Germany. But he immediately reassured his audience, saying, “We’re not going to war with the Ukrainians, and they don’t want war with us.”
While he acknowledged that the Ukrainian people want peace, Łukašenka claimed that “the country’s leadership is controlled by the Americans.”
This claim is difficult to reconcile with the reality on the ground. In fact, the United States is actively urging Kyiv to engage in peace talks, and Donald Trump has promised to achieve peace in 24 hours if elected.
Łukašenka shields population from truth
Łukašenka does not seem to believe that a Ukrainian attack is imminent. His claim that he had deployed a third of the Belarusian army to the border was dismissed by the Ukrainian military.
His promise of peaceful skies has been undermined by the Russian drone incursions. Russian President Vladimir Putin is unlikely to stop attacking Ukraine just because of Łukašenka’s complaints.
To maintain the illusion of peaceful skies, the authorities are working to silence critics and block Belarusians’ access to information.
In one incident, state-controlled media reported last week that agents from the Committee for State Security (KGB) and elite police forces arrested a woman in Kalinkavičy for allegedly sharing a video of the drone crash with opposition media outlets.
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