Will Minsk seize opportunity to improve ties with US?

A shift in Washington’s policy under Donald Trump has presented Minsk with an opportunity to reset its relations with the United States.

Deal stalls as reprisals continue unabated

Three weeks ago, The New York Times speculated that Washington might ease sanctions against Belarus in exchange for the release of a significant number of political prisoners. However, reprisals continue, while US citizens Juryj Ziankovič, and Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty journalists Ihar Łosik and Ihar Karniej—whose release the United States may be seeking—remain behind bars.

Dozens of imprisoned dissidents were pardoned before the January presidential election, but only three were pardoned in February, all with U.S. assistance. Talks on a potential grand bargain seem to have stalled.

In a recent interview with American blogger Mario Naufal, Łukašenka stated that he was ready to offer a chance to those who had been “misled”: “We are already doing that, and this is my task: those who made mistakes, those who were misled, should live in their own land, create families and raise children.”

However, on March 3, he sent a different message. While acknowledging that “one must know how to forgive,” he instructed officials to continue unmasking and eradicating all “enemies of the state who have been lying low for a while.”

“What kind of forgiveness can there be if a person deliberately breaks the law?” he asked. “I say this in this circle because how can you forgive public figures? [They all were] public figures [representing] health care, education, media, culture, and sports. Everyone is public. The whole nation saw that [they] violated the law and order and opposed the state.”

Łukašenka further asserted that artists must show unwavering support for the current government, telling Culture Minister Rusłan Čarniecki, “If you are facing some dissent . . . you must stop it. You are a statesman, and they must be the same as you are.”

Thus, repression continues at Łukašenka’s behest, not by lower-level officials.

Pardons do not signal end of repression

Officials recognize that repression and mass emigration come with significant socioeconomic challenges, including a labor shortage. This is why the police are hunting for “social parasites,” while the government is attempting to collect taxes from people living abroad for years. Officials also discourage parents from sending their children to study abroad.

However, to maintain his grip on power, the Belarusian leader is willing to pay the price. He understands that his regime cannot survive without repression.

Yet, he is willing to pardon imprisoned dissidents and protesters, but only on the condition that they immediately emigrate, according to pro-government propagandists Juryj Vaskrasienski and Ihar Tur. Opponents argue that this is an unfair deal because police can always arrest new prisoners, but that is a separate issue.

Łukašenka views prisoners as commodities of value to the West, and he is ready to use them as bargaining chips in exchange for sanctions relief and political recognition. Therefore, the release of prisoners is primarily a matter of Belarus’ relations with the West, rather than domestic policy. It is, in essence, part of its foreign policy strategy.

Overtures to Trump

The Belarusian leader closely monitors Washington’s engagement with Russia, fearing that Belarus might remain under US sanctions even if Trump lifts sanctions on Russia. Minsk and Washington share similar views on certain issues. For example, Łukašenka has repeatedly called on Ukraine to negotiate a ceasefire with the Kremlin on its own terms. “We are on the same page as the Americans,” Łukašenka told Naufal.

In the ongoing standoff between Washington and Ukraine, Belarusian state media fully support Trump and sharply criticize Kyiv and Europe. Łukašenka is pleased with Washington’s freeze on USAID’s activities and aid to organizations promoting democracy.

In interviews, he has praised Trump, calling him “an incredible man” and claiming he was sent by God. This admiration seems to exceed his feelings for Russian President Vladimir Putin or other world leaders.

The Belarusian leader has also made concessions to Washington by releasing two American citizens—Anastasia Nuhfer and Nikolay Shugaev—as well as Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty journalist Andrej Kuźniečyk.

Łukašenka is actively seeking engagement with Washington, having given an interview to Trump supporter Naufal and even instructed officials to search for rare earth metals, hoping to attract Trump’s attention. He also invited Trump to visit Minsk for talks with Putin and Zelensky.

However, it remains unclear whether these efforts will capture the attention of the US administration, which is currently focused on larger geopolitical issues.

Minsk should hurry

The window of opportunity for Belarus may close soon. The “honeymoon” in US-Russia relations could end once Washington realizes that Moscow will not compromise on Ukraine.

Additionally, the Belarusian-Russian military exercise Zapad-2025, scheduled for September, is causing concern among Belarus’ neighbors. Tensions surrounding it are expected to rise as fall approaches.

Russia also plans to deploy Oreshnik missiles in Belarus later this year, creating an unfavorable backdrop for any potential deals with Washington.

Meanwhile, European Union countries are determined to offset the cessation of American military aid to Ukraine, which will further strain relations between Russia and Europe. This makes Belarus a more attractive military outpost for Russia. Over the past three years, the two countries have forged close military ties, demonstrating the lack of interest in normalizing relations with the West.

For this reason, it would be wise for the Belarusian government to act quickly with any significant proposals to the United States, such as releasing imprisoned opponents, including prominent figures. The key question is whether Minsk is capable of planning even a step or two ahead.