Aliaksandar Łukašenka is looking to reshuffle the House of Represantatives and transfer most loyal officials to the All-Belarusian People’s Assembly.
No continuity
In the election scheduled for February 20-25, 265 candidates are running for 110 parliamentary seats, 2.4 candidates per seat. Competition has declined since the previous vote in 2019 (562, or 5.1 per seat), but it is clearly not the only important change.
Not a single opposition candidate has been registered for the race. The election is planned as a military operation, with armed “rapid reaction groups” on alert to suppress dissent. Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe observers have not been invited because of alleged “geographical and functional distortions” in the OSCE, “the degradation of the atmosphere of interstate interaction,” and “the West-caused deterioration of the logistical possibilities to leave and enter Belarus,” the foreign ministry explained.
Only 7.4 percent MPs stand for reelection, and therefore the lower house will change 92.6 percent, or maybe more.
In September 2019, Łukašenka stressed the need for continuity. About a third of the MPs, he said, should run again, “otherwise completely new people will come and will have to be taught for a year and a half.”
Five years later, he speaks of “generational change.”
Few propagandists on ballots
Only two propaganda heavyweights have been registered as candidates – Vadzim Hihin, director of the National Library and a regular on state TV talk shows, and Alaksandar Špakoŭski, a political analyst, currently working at the Belarusian Embassy in Russia.
Campaign picket for Aleksandar Špakoŭski in Minsk
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The secretary general of the Belarusian Red Cross (BRC), Zmicier Šaŭcoŭ, is also in the mix. A former TV show presenter, he once stirred up controversy by his comments encouraging Russia to consider nuclear strikes against the West. Since the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies suspended the BRC over Šaŭcoŭ’s comments and activities in Ukraine’s occupied areas, so he may be looking for another job.
Anžalika Kurčak, spokeswoman for the Prosecutor General’s Office, is also running. Last year, she called for measures against child-free families. Her popularity should not be overestimated since an average Belarusian hardly knows her.
Those competing for seats on the Minsk City Council include Ivan Ejsmant, head of the Belarusian State Television and Radio Company (BSTRC) and husband of Łukašenka’s spokeswoman, Natalla Ejsmant; Andrej Kryvašejeŭ, head of the state-run news agency Minsk-Novosti and the pro-government Union of Journalists; Jaŭhen Pustavy, an STV show presenter; and Vadźim Baravik, a frequent guest at TV shows.
Outgoing propagandists
Hienadź Davydźka, ex-head of the BSTRCand ex-chairman of the pro-government Biełaya Ruś association, will not run.
Andrej Savinych, a former foreign ministry spokesman known for his anti-Western statements and support for closer ties with Russia, is also dropping out.
Ex-Information Minister Lilija Ananič, former TV presenter Tengiz Dumbadze, and General Aleh Biełakonieŭ, who called for mass shootings of protesters during the turbulent year of 2021, are also not running.
Historian Ihar Marzaluk has announced a reelection bid, but his rival’s chances look better.
All these people have glorified Łukašenka’s policies for many years.
What is behind the reshuffle?
The Belarusian ruler may be looking to strengthen the All-Belarusian People’s Assembly, which was given sweeping powers by the recent constitutional referendum.
He has appointed outgoing deputy parliamentary speaker Valeryj Mickievič, a longtime ally with management experience in the administration and the central election commission, as head of the assembly’s secretariat.
He told Mickievič that he should employ “the professionals of our parliament” who “have done a lot.” He added that the assembly should be formed of “experienced people” in order “not to make a mistake somewhere.”
“We are on the verge of a generational change, when we will have to hand over everything that has been done, bad or good, to the younger generation, our children,” Łukašenka said on January 7. “This year is going to be very difficult. They [enemies] will practice on us. And we must resist. They will train for the future presidential election.”
He sees the assembly as “a controller” and supervisor of other government agencies, so “appropriate people should be represented there.”
The assembly will consist of up to 1,200 delegates – officials and leaders of government-organized non-governmental organizations (GONGOs). Actually, many outgoing MPs may be given roles in the assembly. They are experienced, vetted and trained to “supervise,” especially the propagandists who stood by Łukašenka after the rigged 2020 presidential election. The delegates may elect the Belarusian ruler as chairman of the All-Belarusian People’s Assembly. So, he may be holding two jobs in three months.