Some European experts believe that Belarus could become a conduit for the transit of Palestinians from the Gaza Strip to the European Union. While this route should not be completely discounted, an organized effort to smuggle migrants is likely to fail.
On October 17, Scotland’s First Minister Hamza Yousaf announced his country’s readiness to accept Gaza refugees and called on London to join his initiative. Predictably, his populist remarks have not found support in either the UK or the EU. Nevertheless, European politicians are concerned about a possible inflow of refugees.
Ruud Koopmans, head of the Department of Migration Studies at the Berlin Research Center for Social History, does not rule out that large numbers of Palestinian refugees might to flee to the EU. In his opinion, they could first enter neighboring Egypt and then travel to Turkey and Iran. Koopmans sees Russia and Belarus as possible transit points on their way to Europe.
Where will refugees go?
Egypt, Jordan and other Arab countries do not accept refugees from Gaza for political and economic reasons.
Egypt has offered the EU to take in one million Gazans, the Financial Times reported.
Meanwhile, Israel is preparing for a ground operation in Gaza. Jerusalem has no intention of abandoning its stated goal of crushing Hamas, so the situation of Gazans will continue to deteriorate. But Egypt is unlikely to open its border to Gaza refugees.
Cairo might allow some refugees to enter Egypt in exchange for tangible economic benefits on condition that the Palestinians do not stay in the country for a long time.
An opportunity for Putin and Łukašenka
The war in the Middle East offers the leaders of Russia and Belarus a tempting opportunity to further destabilize Europe by illegally smuggling refugees from Gaza to the EU. Koopmans believes that Minsk and Moscow could strike a deal with Egypt to smuggle Gaza refugees across Belarusian borders into Poland and Baltic states.
Refugees from Palestinian camps in Syria and Lebanon were among migrants who traveled to the EU through Belarus in 2021, according to media reports. EU officials accused Belarusian security services of helping migrants to cross the Belarusian-EU border illegally.
However, the smuggling of refugees as part of the hybrid war against the West would be a problem for Moscow and Minsk.
Any dealings with Minsk to facilitate illegal migration would strain Egypt’s relations with
the EU.
No doubt, Warsaw, Vilnius and Riga can protect their borders, and after the 2021 migration crisis they already have experience in doing it.
Two years ago, Alaksandar Łukašenka’s plan to smuggle migrants failed, and Minsk had to send thousands back to Iraq and other countries. A new attempt is more likely to end in failure, but there will be no country to which the Gazans could be sent back to. If they stay in Belarus, it could cause discontent among locals.
If Moscow and Minsk try to transfer refugees to the EU, they are likely to face new European sanctions, while Western support for Ukraine is likely to grow.
Taking into account all pros and cons, any plans by Minsk or Moscow to flood the EU with refugees from Gaza are unlikely to succeed. At the same time, the issue will remain on the agenda of the Belarusian propaganda, which has taken an articulate anti-American and anti-Israeli stance since the beginning of the Gaza war.