Poland has not yet decided whether to close its border with Belarus, Deputy Interior Minister Maciej Wąsik told Polsat on August 21, noting that Wagner Group’s possible aggressive actions may prompt it to do so. Meanwhile, the Russian private military company has released a video of its leader Yevgeny Prigozhin posing in military uniform, possibly somewhere in Africa.
Prigozhin’s video
Poland estimates that up to 5,000 Russian mercenaries are currently based in Belarus, even if they do nothing at the moment, Wąsik said.
Prigozhin is seen in the video standing in a desert area in camouflage and with a rifle in his hands. Noting that “the temperature is plus 50 [degrees Celsius],” he says that Wagner is “making life a nightmare for ISIS, Al-Qaeda and other bandits,” “making Russia even greater on all continents, and Africa even more free.”
Journalists have not been able to geolocate or verify the date of the video. All Eyes on Wagner, an open-source research group, reported on August 19 that a plane linked to Prighozin had landed in Bamako, the capital of Mali.
In the video, the mercenary leader would not elaborate on Wagner’s plans in Belarus and stopped short of making any threats to Poland.
Alaksandar Łukašenka on August 11 dismissed his earlier threat to unleash mercenaries on Poland as a joke and even said he was ready to improve ties.
Belarus-based Wagner mercenaries lack hardware to attack Ukraine or NATO countries, according to Ukrainian intelligence. Andrii Yusov, a spokesman for the Ukrainian defense ministry’s intelligence department, noted that “there are not so many suicidal individuals among Wagner fighters” to attack Ukraine or Poland.
Wagner reconnaissance groups potentially can carry out incursions into the neighbors’ territory, but Łukašenka is not really interested in an escalation and is unlikely to let the mercenaries, based near Asipovičy, Minsk region, improvise.
Certainly, he just cannot tell them to leave Belarus as soon as possible. He is likely discussing their future with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Prigozhin.
Some Russian mercenaries may soon travel to Africa to join the Wagner chief. Some may return to Russia, while others may sign contracts with the Russian Armed Forces. A handful will stay in Belarus to train Belarusian troops.
Wagner threats exaggerated by politicians
Valdemaras Rupšys, commander of the Lithuanian Armed Forces, said on August 21 that there was no direct military threat from Belarus. But he added that the Belarusian regime and the Russian forces in Belarus were unpredictable.
Kyiv has consistently played down the Wagner threat. NATO shares its assessment.
Some politicians in Poland and Lithuania seem to deliberately play up Wagner menace to advance their political interests. Poland holds a parliamentary election in October. Lithuania is to conduct parliamentary and presidential elections next year.
Poland’s Law and Justice party, its critics say, stresses its determination to defend voters from threats emanating from the Belarusian dictatorship. Some Lithuanian politicians play the same card. Voters in the Baltic States still remember the Soviet occupation and are wary of Russia. Meanwhile, Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda sees Belarus as a Russian province.
His office may use Wagner presence as a pretext to propose tighter visa and residence restrictions for Belarusians in Lithuania. The Lithuanian parliament rejected a similar proposal this spring, but the president’s office may soon make another attempt to push the bill through the legislature.
Border closure does not bother Wagner, migrants
Understandably, Łukašenka has gotten under neighbors’ skin with his hybrid attacks involving migrants and his friendship with Russian mercenaries.
Security officials in these countries propose barriers as the simplest solution. Instead of screening travelers to identify spies and saboteurs, they seek to limit traffic from Łukašenka’s dictatorship as much as possible.
On August 18, Lithuania closed the Šumskas and Tverečius checkpoints, citing the lack of equipment for scanning truck trailers and security concerns, including Russia’s Wagner Group mercenaries stationed in Belarus.
The illegal migrants and Wagner mercenaries are likely to be least affected. The former have not used checkpoints and crossed illegally, getting through the fence or barbed wire, while Wagner saboteurs do not usually ask for visas. They look for weak spots.
Border closure would mostly affect ordinary Belarusians. Authorities are likely to close the border for passenger vehicles because a disruption of rail and truck traffic would harm the interests of EU countries and China. Beijing can probably influence Warsaw to prevent complete shutdown.
Most affected would be Belarusians who work in neighboring countries, shuttle traders and those whose loved ones have fled from political reprisals. A simple trip to a European country is already a luxury that most Belarusians cannot afford.
Isolation would speed up the process of Belarus’ absorption by the Kremlin. Some Western politicians have already given up on Belarus.
Opposition politicians said they were discussing humanitarian corridors for Belarusians fleeing from political persecution. If the border is closed, it would be easy for Belarusian security officers to arrest anyone approaching the so-called official humanitarian corridor.
Śviatłana Cichanoŭskaja said at a recent conference in Warsaw that the opposition’s goal was to take Belarus to the European Union. Border closure is unlikely to make EU membership more attractive for Belarusians. Quite the contrary, the move would be used by propaganda to discredit the EU.
On the brink
Border closure is not imminent. Warsaw, Vilnius and Riga just exert pressure on Łukašenka whose economic interests would also suffer. However, the escalation may spiral out of control.
Tension at the border is likely to remain high until Poland’s parliamentary election, unless Łukašenka compromises.
The Belarusian ruler can limit the flow of illegal migrants, but he cannot force Wagner mercenaries out of the country without Putin’s approval.
Polish Deputy Foreign Minister Paweł Jabłoński said earlier this month that Minsk should release Andrej Pačobut (Andrzej Poczobut), a jailed journalist and Polish minority activist, and the other political prisoners to improve relations with Poland.
Obviously, Łukašenka would not do that. He is adamant to keep Pačobut and others in prison and fears that his regime would collapse if he shows any signs of weakness.