Prigozhin’s death gives Minsk opportunity to defuse tension with neighbors

The death of Wagner Group leaders may ease neighbors’ concerns about mercenaries stationed in Belarus. Alaksandar Łukašenka is likely to nudge Russian President Vladimir Putin to provide cash for funding the fighters or take them back to Russia.

Yevgeny Prigozhin’s plane crushed in Russia’s Tver province on August 23. After the accident, Moscow is highly unlikely to use Wagner fighters for attacks on Ukraine or Belarus’ European Union neighbors.

Kremlin ruins Prigozhin’s empire

Speculation is rife that Putin — who is notoriously unforgiving of traitors and accused Prigozhin of “treason” in June — ordered the downing of the aircraft exactly two months after the failed coup.

When Wagner forces marched on Moscow, the Kremlin used Łukašenka to persuade their commander to end the mutiny and arrange for the relocation of thousands of his fighters to Belarus. However, Putin and Łukašenka are said to have failed to reach an understanding on who pays for the party.

In the last two months, the Kremlin has taken consistent action to ruin Prigozhin’s business empire and seize his assets.

Christo Grozev of Bellingcat says that Prigozhin was travelling from Mali, where he had tried to prevent Russia’s Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU) agents from forcing Wagner fighters out of the country and Africa. According to him, Prigozhin and his associates made a stop in Belarus.

Based on reports from Bellingcat, Putin and Prigozhin have not ironed out their differences.

Łukašenka put on a show during his meeting with Putin in St. Petersburg on July 23, threatening to unleash the Wagner Group on Poland. He claimed that Wagner militants based in Belarus were eager to carry out incursions into Warsaw and Rzeszów, a hub in southeastern Poland for Western military equipment bound for Ukraine.

Two weeks later he said his threat was just a joke and expressed readiness to improve relations with Poland.

Neighbors’ concerns

The presence of Wagner fighters in Belarus fanned fears that Minsk and Moscow may use them to destabilize Latvia, Lithuanian and Poland. On August 18, Lithuania closed the Šumskas and Tverečius checkpoints, citing the lack of equipment for scanning truck trailers and security concerns, including Russia’s Wagner Group mercenaries in Belarus. The three countries were discussing a complete border closure in response to possible incidents.

Prigozhin’s death can somewhat assuage their concerns.

Meanwhile, Belarusian opposition leader Śviatłana Cichanoŭskaja and others mocked Łukašenka for his alleged failure to honor the security guarantees he had given to Prigozhin to persuade him to call off the uprising.

The accusations are unfounded. Łukašenka actually delivered on his promise that Russian troops would not attack the Wagner fighters if they called off their march and withdrew to Belarus.

Łukašenka could not guarantee Prigozhin’s safety all over the world. The mercenary chief could have been shot in Africa, where he said he was a few days ago. His plane crushed in Russia, not Belarus.

“But if you think that Putin is so bloody-minded and unforgiving, and that he [Prigozhin] will be assassinated somewhere tomorrow . . . It will not happen,” Łukašenka told reporters on July 6. Ironically, he was right that Prigozhin would not be killed “tomorrow.”

Wagner fighters are a headache

Łukašenka may now nudge Putin to decide what to do with the fighters living at the tent camp near Asipovičy, Minsk region. The Belarusian ruler expected Prigozhin to foot their bill and take them to Africa.

According to unconfirmed reports, Łukašenka discussed financial arrangements with Putin in July, but they did not reach a deal.

It is not only a matter of money.

Łukašenka and Putin seem to be undecided on how to use them. The Belarusian army cannot employ all Wagner fighters as instructors. Any border incidents involving mercenaries may prompt Latvia, Lithuania and Poland to close the border with Belarus. This is something Minsk and Moscow are interested to avoid. Wagner’s African prospects have faded with its chief’s death.

Łukašenka may eventually ask Putin to take the mercenaries back to Russia. It would be a big relief for Belarus’ EU neighbors.