Alaksandar Łukašenka on June 11 instructed Ihar Karpenka, head of the central election commission, to hold an impeccable presidential election in 2025.
Łukašenka unwittingly gives publicity to opposition
“As in previous years, there is no need for pressure or the administrative resource,” Łukašenka said, as quoted by his press office. “We can hold the election honestly and decently.”
His press office also cited his remarks about last month’s election for the opposition Coordination Council.
“Out of almost seven million voters, as many as 6,000 took part in the vote. No problem. They consider themselves elected, they have elected a ‘parliament’ and now they travel far and wide begging for money,” he said.
In fact, the ruler, albeit in a derogatory way, unwittingly informed Belarusians about the opposition’s election. Many have never heard of it because the government has blocked access to independent websites and jailed people for subscriptions to what it labeled extremist content.
Łukašenka could not resist the temptation to verbally poke at his opponents whom he hates after his 2020 campaign flop.
He closely follows opposition activities and mentally continues a bitter dispute with Śviatłana Cichanoŭskaja for legitimacy.
Election 2025 likely to be quiet
The government may not even need to use its political establishment muscle during next year’s poll.
Why force people to go to the polls if officials can simply fake a result?
In 2020, opposition politician Siarhiej Cichanoŭski was arrested at a picket while collecting signatures for his wife.
Mikoła Statkevič was arrested on his way to a Cichanoŭskaja’s picket.
Pavieł Sieviaryniec was arrested on his way back from a picket.
Prosecutors fabricated a corruption case against Viktar Babaryka because he had collected a huge number of signatures.
Riot police arrested opponents in the streets in the run-up to the election. The street activity of voters craving for change put the regime under tremendous pressure.
Next year, however, the government will not need to round up opponents at pickets and rallies simply because its script does not provide for any opposition.
The opposition parties have been outlawed. And anyway, no opponent will dare to collect signatures or protest in the street, knowing that it would land them in jail for many years. Candidates still need 100,000 signatures for ballot access, Karpienka stressed.
Łukašenka told him to conduct the poll in such a way as not to “offend people.” This sounds ridiculous after thousands have been imprisoned and abused and hundreds of thousands have been forced to leave the country for demanding a fair vote in 2020. Others who remain in Belarus live in fear.
All dissent within the country has been crushed, so barring some force majeure, the next election is likely to be as quiet as a cemetery ceremony.
Legitimacy haunts the ruler
Stage-managed rituals, even fake ones, are important for dictators. The illusion of a fair race will be created with the help of government-friendly international observers.
According to Karpienka, nearly 300 observers monitored the February parliamentary and local elections. He is expecting at least 450 to arrive for the presidential poll.
Observers from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) will certainly not be invited because they reported flaws during every election held under Łukashenka.
Karpienka plans to invite missions from the Russian-dominated Commonwealth of Independent States and the Chinese-dominated Shanghai Cooperation Organization because he is confident that they will deliver positive assessments.
He also wants to invite monitors from Africa, Latin America and Europe. Minsk counts on the Global South and friendly countries, mostly flawed democracies or dictatorships. Besides, a few Western outcasts may show up to praise freedom under Łukašenka.
And although opponents have dismissed the 2025 election as a sham, the ruler is preparing for the show with the utmost seriousness. It is clear that the law enforcement agencies will be on stand-by since Łukašenka seriously believes that the West can oust him with the help of the exiled opposition.
As his remarks about the Coordination Council indicate, any claim or hint at someone else’s legitimacy stresses him out.
On the one hand, even many opponents of the regime view the Coordination Council with skepticism.
On the other, this opposition body is at least 6,723 times more legitimate (that’s how many people voted) than the All-Belarusian People’s Assembly, whose delegates were appointed by Łukašenka.
Also read: Łukašenka wants impeccable presidential election