On July 16, a Shahed drone crashed in the Homiel region, 55 kilometers off the city of Babruisk, Bełaruski Hajun reported.
The Russian drone Geran (Shahed) found in Ukraine’s Vinnitsa region in March after an attack
It was the fourth Russian kamikaze drone to enter Belarusian airspace since July 11, it said.
A Belarusian Mi-24 helicopter took off at 9:10 a.m. from the Mačuliščy airfield in the Minsk region, and a Su-30 fighter aircraft took off at 9:15 a.m. from Baranavičy, Brest region, in an apparent response to the incursions.
Ukrainian air defenses downed two Shaheds on July 15 and 16, while two others went missing in Belarus, the Ukrainian Air Force reported without specifying the launch site of the unmanned aerial vehicles.
Fighting windmills
Two days earlier, Łukašenka ordered troops to return from the Belarusian-Ukrainian border to their permanent bases, his press office reported.
“Now we have no complications with the Ukrainians, and I hope there will be none,” he said during his visit to the 56th Anti-aircraft Missile Regiment in the Brest region on July 13.
“After we did some work, the Ukrainians withdrew their Armed Forces and additional troops from the Ukrainian-Belarusian border area,” he noted.
Speaking on July 16 at a meeting with Military Academy graduates and senior officers, Łukašenka said that Minsk and Kyiv had reached the deal: “they withdrew their forces, we withdrew our troops.”
He promised a harsh response “to any provocation.”
“We must stand firm and not allow our enemies to drag Belarus into a military conflict,” he said.
The remark came on the day the Russian kamikaze drone was spotted over Belarus.
So who is really endangering the peaceful life of Belarusians?
So much for the peaceful skies
Citing a Ukrainian threat, Łukašenka deployed his troops to the southern border and then retreated, claiming that he scared the hell out of Kyiv. Ukrainian analysts see the maneuvers as a psychological operation in the interests of Moscow.
In fact, it is highly doubtful that Kyiv, struggling to contain the Russian onslaught, would transfer combat-ready units to the northern border. Why would it? After all, there is currently no Russian strike group in Belarus capable of successfully attacking Ukraine from the north.
Łukašenka and his generals are rattling their armor but clearly do not want to fight. Ukraine will not attack Belarus as it struggles to hold its ground on the current fronts.
So this whole story painted by the Belarusian ruler, his military and propaganda looks like a big hoax.
However, the flights of Russian attack drones with explosives over Belarus are a concern. After all, a drone can explode anywhere, fall on a city or a big factory.
In Mogilev, an air raid siren went off when the UAV flew nearby. And although state propaganda has carefully suppressed the story and continues to falsely portray Belarus as an island of peace and stability, the Belarusians must be concerned.
Any reason for Moscow to worry?
Why did Russian drones suddenly start flying to Belarus? It was not just a technical error because at least four incidents were recorded.
Russia is experimenting with routes over Belarus to avoid countermeasures by mobile groups that can shoot drones down over the Zhytomyr region, said Oleksandr Musienko, head of Ukraine’s Military Law Research Center.
Pavlo Narozhny, a Ukrainian defense analyst, wrote that “this could be the work of our Ukrainian electronic warfare system, which either simply jams the drone’s GPS or generates spoofing signals.” Some of these drones entered Belarusian airspace from Ukraine.
Alarmists suggested that Russia wants to draw Belarus into the war by staging a major accident.
Or perhaps it was a sign of Moscow’s discontent with Łukašenka’s attempt to somewhat distance himself from the war.
After all, he has been playing a very peace-loving tune lately, hinting at some deals with Kyiv, so Moscow might want to show who is really in charge of the Belarusian skies.
The Shahed flights may prompt Ukraine to use skies over Belarus to fly its drones targeting Russian installations. Commentators in Kyiv already talk about this option. Then it would be a major problem, and sooner or later it might escalate.
The presence of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus also increases the risk of the country falling victim to the Kremlin’s military gambles.
So, while Łukašenka fights imaginary threats from Ukrainians and Poles, the real trouble comes from Russia.
Also read: Ukrainian Air Force confirms Shahed incursions into Belarus