The Prosecutor General’s Office of Belarus said its commission considered a number of requests from political emigrants to return home, but mentioned only two specific cases. Few Belarusians who fled their country for fear of persecution use the opportunity to apologize to officials, in exchange for leniency, for standing up against election fraud and human rights abuses after the 2020 presidential vote.
Alaksandar Łukašenka contemptuously calls political emigrants “fugitives.” The word smack of serfdom as it was used by landowners to describe surfs who ran away from their masters.
The Belarusian ruler expects his critics to come back home on their knees, crawling.
Police chief acknowledges exodus
Deputy Interior Minister Mikalai Karpiankoŭ has recently told participants in a training camp at Military Unit 3214, notorious for crushing 2020 protests, that “350,000 of those who do not support us have fled abroad.”
The number could hardly be of his own calculation, and most likely he quoted a confidential document. Perhaps, Łukašenka had ordered the police to make an estimate, although in public he usually plays down the scale of emigration.
Last September, the Belarusian ruler comforted Vladimir Putin after he expressed concern about large numbers of Russians fleeing abroad from draft. “Let them go . . . I was not particularly worried when a few thousand left in 2020. Now most of them are begging: take me back.”
Karpiankoŭ’s estimate is close to assessments by independent experts who warned that emigration will take a heavy toll on the population and economy.
Already, tax revenue from the IT sector has plunged, and there is a severe shortage of doctors.
Government vindictive and stingy
In early May, Prosecutor General Andrej Švied said in a televised interview that the commission had received more than 70 applications. Cyberpartisans, an opposition hacktivist group, reported in July that only 16 people had sent documents to the commission during the five months of its operation. Six of them were hardened criminals convicted of crimes unrelated to politics, while most of the applications did not meet the official requirements. Only two were approved, said the initiative, known for its daring hacks into government databases.
Overall, the commission does not appear to be overloaded with work. The General Prosecutor’s Office reported only four meetings. Under Łukašenka’s decree, applications can be submitted until December 31. The commission may be disbanded at the end of the year because it failed its mission.
It is not a surprise. The commission is dominated by oppressive law enforcers and despicable propagandists. The humiliating conditions set by the government for emigrants’ return could hardly generate enthusiasm among potential applicants.
Most importantly, reprisals show no sign of abating. It seems that resistance has been paralyzed, the spirit of disobedience has been destroyed, but the incumbent continues to watch out for conspiracies.
Although Łukašenka said last week that he was ready for negotiations with the West, he made it clear that he would negotiate only on his own terms.
The Belarusian leader may be trying to cozy up to the European Union. Its sanctions hurt, and Beijing apparently complains that its transit interests are threatened by Minsk’s standoff with the West.
Łukašenka’s Belarus maintains economic growth and living standards by ceding elements of sovereignty and tying itself to Russia. For the Belarusian ruler, this is still better than loosening the screws. He is vindictive and stingy.
One of the cases from the prosecutor’s report involved a woman who “sincerely repented, said she was ready to apologize in public and to compensate for the damage caused.” The commission did not forgive the poor woman, not even for the sake of public relations, but replaced her imprisonment with a lighter sentence.
As long as regime relies on reprisals no commission can help
It is clear that exiled opposition leaders and activists did not even think of applying because this would destroy their reputation. Even political newcomers, who were simply caught up in the wave of protests in 2020 and posted a few photos with the opposition flag on Facebook, are reluctant to repent.
People do not trust the law enforcers. Today they may forgive you, but tomorrow they will come and put you “face down on the ground,” as they often do when they come for the second or third time to those who have already been searched, imprisoned or fined for donations to solidarity funds.
There is no hope that the regime, which is sliding into totalitarianism, will suddenly make a U-turn or take its foot of the gas.
Many of those who left the country have settled down, integrated into new communities, found jobs and are taking opportunities in new and often very difficult circumstances. Nostalgia is a bad feeling, but returning to desolation, hopelessness and constant fear is not an option, despite all the hurdles of life in emigration.
The commission could have been successful if the government had opted for national reconciliation and dialogue with dissenters, which is unrealistic under Łukašenka.
If circumstances change and the regime falters, political issues will be resolved in a completely different format, not by a commission of law enforcers and propagandists.