August 27, Pozirk. Current buildup of Belarusian troops along the shared border with Ukraine is likely meant to “divert and stretch Ukrainian forces on a wider front line,” says a recent analysis by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Alaksandar Łukašenka fears weakening his power over Belarus as such an unpopular move as joining the war would “drastically increase Belarusian domestic discontent,” it noted.
The Belarusian ruler wants to prevent Belarus’ further international isolation and negative economic consequences that may affect his “efforts to restore his regime’s stability since 2020,” the ISW said.
“Belarusian presidential elections are approaching in February 2025, and Łukašenka likely desires to retain control over public sentiment, as well as access to his military to crack down on any protests surrounding the elections, as he did in late 2020,” the analysts stressed.
Łukašenka also aims to “maintain some level of Belarusian sovereignty vis-a-vis Russia while portraying Belarus as Russia‘s equal partner” amid Russia’s efforts to gain a foothold in Belarus, the analysis said.
On August 10, amid the Ukrainian offensive in Russia’s Kursk province, Alaksandar Łukašenka accused Kyiv of violating the Belarusian airspace with drones and sent back his troops to the Belarusian-Ukrainian border.
On Sunday, as Russian troops kept advancing on Pokrovsk, a Ukrainian logistics hub in Donbas, Ukrainian diplomats sounded alarm over troops buildup in Belarus’ Homiel region and urged Minsk to withdraw its forces from the Ukrainian border. Minsk dismissed Kyiv’s concerns, noting that troops’ deployment was purely defensive.
Łukašenka is trying to help Vladimir Putin by diverting Ukrainian forces and inflating perceived threats, according to Andriy Kovalenko of the Ukrainian Center for Countering Disinformation.
