US think tank: Russia to boost control over Belarus no matter how war with Ukraine ends

February 18, BPN. The Kremlin is likely to use Belarus’ defense industry to reequip its troops and continue its war on Ukraine, says a recent analysis by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Russia may take over Belarusian factories and adjust them to the Russian military needs to ensure its military success in the long term, the analysts noted.   

The Kremlin’s successes in Belarus show that Putin’s imperialistic ambitions go beyond Ukraine and that the West needs to keep its guard up against Russia, the ISW stressed. “Putin will very likely make significant gains in restoring Russian suzerainty over Belarus regardless of the outcome of his invasion of Ukraine,” it noted.

Łukašenka’s refusal to send Belarusian troops to help Russia in Ukraine has already led Russia to intensify integration within the Union State of Russia and Belarus, a development that Łukašenka has been resisting for a long time, the analysts said. 

The West sometimes ignores Putin’s activities that appear trivial, but are essential to his strategic gains in the long run, they added, citing Russia’s integration pressure on Belarus since 1999.