Образец "Паспорта новой Беларуси", который был представлен на конференции в Варшаве 6 августа
Belarus’ opposition forces held the New Belarus 2023 conference in Warsaw on August 6.
Sanctions, arrest warrant and Ukraine’s victory
Belarus’ opposition adopted several declarations at their landmark conference held in Warsaw on August 6, but failed to unveil a comprehensive strategy detailing mechanisms to overthrow Alaksandar Łukašenka’s authoritarian regime.
The opposition camp calls for tighter international sanctions against Minsk and seeks an international arrest warrant for Łukašenka and his cronies, hoping that it will shake the elite’s confidence in its leader.
However, the opposition has only indirect influence on Western sanction policies. Impact from restrictions has fallen short of public expectations so far, and severe sanctions are unlikely to be adopted in the foreseeable future.
Moreover, a threat of international criminal persecution only seems to rally officials round their leader.
Speaking at the conference, Ivan Kraŭcoŭ, a member of former presidential hopeful Viktar Babaryka’s team, stressed the need for national dialogue to overcome political polarization. Many opponents, however, are skeptical about engagement with Łukašenka.
One declaration calls for assistance to Ukraine. Clearly, the opposition’s United Transitional Cabinet and Coordination Council cannot offer as many drones, main battle tanks and aircraft as the United States and its allies. That is why Kyiv is still reluctant to deal with the Belarusian opposition, although some Ukrainian politicians seem to be warming up to the idea.
Pavieł Kuchta, a delegate from the Kastuś Kalinoŭski Regiment, said that Belarusian volunteer fighters recognize Śviatłana Cichanoŭskaja as Belarus’ “international representative.” He called for establishing a national liberation movement and said that the Kastuś Kalinoŭski Regiment was ready to become its “military center.”
Valeryj Sachaščyk, the opposition cabinet’s defense representative, urged the conference participants to discuss a plan based on the assumption that Russia cannot be defeated soon.
Speakers at the conference also called for forming a broad-based movement called New Belarus.
Declaration on European Union membership
The conference approved a declaration to stress Belarus’ aspirations to join the European Union (EU).
On the one hand, an EU membership bid is a logical step to save the country from crawling incorporation into Russia. Critics have long urged Cichanoŭskaja to declare her camp’s geopolitical priorities. She said at the conference that the opposition’s goal was “to rip Belarus out of the Russian orbit.”
On the other hand, Andrej Vardamacki’s polls suggest that more Belarusians support an alliance with Russia than EU membership. This is a challenge that has yet to be addressed.
Azaraŭ voted out of cabinet
In her closing statement, Cichanoŭskaja announced her decision to dismiss Alaksandar Azaraŭ as her cabinet’s law and order chief, following a vote of no confidence at the Coordination Council, the opposition’s proto-parliament.
The Coordination Council hearings were a display of separation of powers, a system dismantled by Łukašenka in Belarus. The Council heard reports from cabinet members and asked them questions. Activists stress that that the body is needed to ensure politicians’ accountability.
While the current delegates were hand-picked, the opposition plans to hold a democratic election for the Coordination Council in 2024. Opponents may find it difficult to promote the election to enough voters and ensure that Belarusians can cast their ballots online safely.
The Łukašenka regime plans to hold the next presidential election in 2025. Although the opposition is likely to denounce it as not free and fair, even a rigged vote can undermine Cichanoŭskaja’s claim to leadership of the country.
New Belarus may be long way off
The suppression of a peaceful revolution by the government in 2020 was followed by a fierce counter-revolution. The regimes of Vladimir Putin and Łukašenka look doomed from the historic perspective, but they may last too long if time is measured in terms of human lives. Many in the Soviet Union thought the system would be there forever only to see it collapse overnight.
Participants at the New Belarus workshop discussed many brilliant ideas. It is important that opponents work out detailed programs of reforms in various areas.
A highlight of the event was the presentation of a New Belarus passport, an identification document designed for Belarusian emigrants. It may take a tremendous effort to have the New Belarus passport recognized by enough countries. The road to New Belarus is likely to be even longer and take a greater effort.