Пункт пропуска Лоша (с литовской стороны — Шумскас)
Lithuania has closed two border checkpoints to warn Minsk against hybrid attacks involving illegal migrants and threats from Wagner Group mercenaries based in Belarus.
Šumskas – Loša and Tverečius – Vidzy handled more than 2,000 travelers daily and also empty trucks. Four border crossings remain open.
Warning from neighbors
Officials from Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia are to meet on August 28 to discuss sealing the eastern border. They are likely to discuss technicalities, while the political decision might be taken later in consultations with Brussels.
The move would disrupt supply chains not only for Belarus and its European Union neighbors, but also for China, Kazakhstan and Russia.
Łukašenka afraid of blockade
The measure may be taken in response to border incidents, for instance violence against Polish or Lithuanian border guards.
The likelihood of clashes is remote. Alaksandar Łukašenka toned down his anti-Polish rhetoric on August 11, during an inspection of Minsk’s international airport.
“We should talk to Poles. I instructed the prime minister to contact them. If they want, let’s talk and improve relations. We are neighbors, and you can’t choose neighbors. They are given by God,” he said.
He stressed that Minsk wants cooperation, not war.
The remarks suggest that the Belarusian strongman is aware of possible economic and political repercussions and seeks to avoid escalation.
Łukašenka’s business
The mastermind of illegal migration via Belarus is Łukašenka, not Vladimir Putin. The Russian president considers himself a big strategist and focuses on geopolitics. Besides, he has his hands full in Ukraine.
Deploying nuclear weapons to Belarus is Putin’s business. Illegal migration is peanuts for him. If the Kremlin considered migration to be of strategic importance, it would have staged hybrid attacks on the Baltic States and Poland from Russia.
On the other hand, the Kremlin does not mind Łukašenka harassing its neighbors with migrants.
Generally, Russia is not interested in the closure of the Belarusian-EU border because this is a transit route for goods subject to international sanctions.
It should be noted that border sealing might limit escape options for Belarusian political refugees. As the political crackdown continues unabated, their numbers remain high.