Poland’s border closure may extend beyond Zapad-2025 as tensions escalate

September 9, Pozirk. Polish Interior Minister Marcin Kierwiński has announced that Poland will close its border with Belarus not only during the Zapad-2025 military exercise, scheduled for September 12–16, but possibly for a longer period. He said that the border would open when officials are fully confident that Belarus does not pose a direct threat to Poland or its citizens.

Earlier, Prime Minister Donald Tusk confirmed that Warsaw would close the border with Belarus, including railway crossings, starting September 12.

Tusk described the joint Russian-Belarusian exercise as “aggressive,” noting that its scenario centers on the vulnerable Suwałki Gap between Lithuania and Poland. He also pointed to mounting tensions between the two countries, citing the recent arrest of Grzegorz Gaweł, a Carmelite monk, in Lepiel, Viciebsk region.

Tensions between Belarus and the European Union have intensified in the run-up to the drills.

On September 4, the Belarus 1 state television channel, linked to the Committee for State Security (KGB), reported the violent arrest of Grzegorz Gaweł, born in 1998 and a resident of Krakow. He was accused of spying for Poland to collect information about Belarusian military command and preparations for the exercise.

On September 8, the Czech Security Information Service announced that it had dismantled a Belarusian spy network operating with the cooperation of Hungarian and Romanian intelligence services. The same day, the Czech Foreign Ministry declared a Belarusian diplomat, identified as an intelligence operative, persona non grata.

Today, Tusk announced that Warsaw would expel a Belarusian diplomat for “supporting aggressive actions of Belarusian secret services against our country.” The Belarusian foreign ministry condemned the expulsions and Poland’s decision to shut its border.

In response to the Russian-Belarusian maneuvers, neighboring states have launched large-scale exercises of their own.

Latvia is conducting Namejs 2025, involving about 12,000 Latvian and allied troops, including forces from Estonia.

Lithuania has begun Perkūno Griausmas, with some 17,000 Lithuanian and NATO personnel.

Poland is carrying out Iron Defender-25, its largest strategic exercise of the year, involving around 34,000 Polish and allied soldiers and more than 600 units of military equipment.

Minsk has not disclosed the expected size of its forces in Zapad-2025. However, Mindaugas Mažonas, head of Lithuania’s Second Investigation Department, suggested in an interview with LRT that the drills in Belarus could involve around 8,000 troops, including about 2,000 from Russia.