Trump to continue engagement with Belarus if he sees prospects for success, political scientist says

November 5, Pozirk. Relations between Minsk and Washington will not change fundamentally after the US midterm elections and will depend on whether the sides can achieve tangible results, Alexander Friedman, a Germany-based political scientist, told Pozirk.

“The United States is ready in principle to cooperate with Belarus. It is willing to implement projects that have been held up by circumstances so far,” he said.

The US is ready to buy potash fertilizers from Belarus, and Alaksandar Łukašenka is willing to sell them, but transit remains an obstacle, Friedman said.

Washington is also willing to sell Boeing aircraft to Belarus’ national airline Biełavija and cooperate with Minsk on a peaceful settlement in Ukraine, he added.

“[US President’s Special Envoy John] Coale promised to come to Minsk in October, but his visit did not take place. His visit was not connected with these elections in any way. The American did not come because the sides had not agreed on new deals,” Friedman said.

He described Coale’s previous visit in mid-September as a failure, noting that Belarusian authorities released only 25 political prisoners, while the envoy had hoped to secure the release of at least 250. However, Friedman said Łukašenka was likely to be more generous next time to avoid damaging Belarusian-US relations.

Friedman noted that the Belarusian ruler welcomed improved ties with the US but was not going to rush into the relationship, recognizing that Donald Trump would eventually leave office. He also understood that the United States was far away, while Russia was next door.

Trump “loves to be there where there is success,” Friedman said. “If there are some prospects for a successful project in Belarus, he will pursue it.”

Following the Republicans’ poor performance in the November 3 midterm elections, Trump is likely to shift his focus from domestic affairs to foreign policy during the final two years of his term.

The Democrats won control of both houses of Congress in the midterm elections.

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Economy, Politics

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