Belarus’ potash exports to halve in 2022 – competitor’s forecast

November 4, BPN. Potash exports from Belarus will drop by 50 to 60 percent in 2022, Canada’s Nutrien, the world’s leading producer of potash fertilizers, said in its recent report, covering the first nine months of 2022.

The international reaction to the war between Russia and Ukraine will continue to affect global markets, including energy and commodity prices, Nutrien said.

Potash net selling price rose in the first nine months of 2022 amid “supply constraints in particular related to uncertainty on future supply from Russia and Belarus,” the Canadian analysts said.

Nutrien stressed that uncertainty remains about the potential effect of the war on global food security, producers and the market outlook for fertilizer market supply and prices.

The analysts expect that potash exports from Eastern Europe will remain limited in 2023, “with shipments from Belarus projected to be down 40 to 60 percent and Russia down 15 to 30 percent compared to 2021 levels.”

The top three potash producers and exporters in 2021, according to the UN, include Canada (14 million tons, 28 percent of the world market), Russia (9 million, 18 percent), and Belarus (8 million, 16 percent). Together they accounted for over 60 percent of global potash supplies.

Brazil, the United States, China, and India are among the key importers.

The European Union imposed sanctions on Belarusian potash sales in 2021 over alleged human rights abuses. The National Statistical Committee (Belstat) has not disclosed data on potash exports since last year.