US think tank: new Russian invasion from Belarus unlikely but possible

December 24, BPN. A new large-scale Russian invasion from Belarus is unlikely this winter, but it is still possible as Moscow has been preparing for it since at least October, says a recent analysis by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

These preparations might be a Russian information operation or they could reflect Russian President Vladimir Putin’s actual intentions, it warned.

Available signals are ambivalent as there is no clear evidence that Moscow is preparing a strike force in Belarus despite the Russian buildup under the guise of military drills, the ISW analysts noted.

Ukrainian intelligence also did not rule out possible new Russian invasion from Belarus. Current activities of Belarusian and Russian troops might be regular exercises or a trick designed to confuse the Ukrainian military command, Kyrylo Budanov of the Ukrainian defense ministry’s intelligence department told The New York Times.

On February 24, Russia started a full-scale war against Ukraine. Alaksandr Łukašenka admitted that Belarus participated in Russia’s war on Ukraine, but said it was “not killing anyone.”

Authorities in Minsk denied Belarusian army troops’ involvement in combat operations on the Russian side. However, Belarus allowed Russian troops and weapons to move freely through the country, use its airspace, refuel and store military equipment and attack Ukraine from its territory.