US think tank: Russia may be preparing new attack from Belarus for late 2023

January 20, BPN. Continued meetings of senior Russian and Belarusian officials indicate that Russia might be planning a new attack on Ukraine from Belarus, “although not necessarily, and also not in the coming weeks,” says a recent analysis by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Defense Ministers Viktar Chrenin and Sergei Shoigu discussed military cooperation in a phone call on January 19. On the same day, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov presented to Alaksandr Łukašenka a so-called “shared vision” for Russia’s war in Ukraine and talked to his Belarusian counterpart Siarhiej Alejnik about winning the “Western hybrid war,” the analysts noted.

At the same time, the ISW said that a new Russian attack from Belarus in early 2023 seems less likely as “Russian forces currently deployed in Belarus are undergoing training rotations and redeploying to fight in eastern Ukraine.”

A Russian attack from Belarus is “unlikely but more plausible” in late 2023, especially considering recent Ukrainian intelligence reports on major joint Russia-Belarus military drills Zapad 2023 and Union Shield 2023 scheduled for September 2023.

In February 2022, Russia started a full-scale war against Ukraine. Łukašenka admitted that Belarus participated in Russia’s war on Ukraine, but said it was “not killing anyone.”

Authorities in Minsk denied Belarusian troops’ involvement in combat operations on the Russian side. However, Belarus allowed Russian troops and weapons to move freely through the country, use its airspace, refuel and store military equipment and attack Ukraine from its territory.