US think tank: Russia’s nuclear threats “part of information campaign”

April 5, BPN. Russia’s deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus is unlikely to affect the combat operations in Ukraine, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US think tank, said in its recent report.

The Kremlin is trying to use nuclear threats “to deter Western military aid provisions to Ukraine ahead of Ukraine’s planned counteroffensive,” while the risk of nuclear escalation remains extremely low, it noted.

The recent statement by the Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu about Belarusian aircraft being prepared to be equipped with nuclear weapons is “likely part of an information operation,” the ISW said.

Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus will “almost certainly remain under the control of Russian personnel permanently deployed in Belarus,” the analysts added.

On March 25, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that the construction of a special storage facility for tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus would be completed by July 1. “We don’t pass [nuclear weapons to Belarus]. And the USA does not pass them to its allies. Basically, we do everything that it has been doing for decades. It has them in certain allied countries, preparing their carriers and their crews,” he said.

Alaksandr Łukašenka seemingly contradicted Putin in his annual address to the nation and parliament on March 31. “Everything will be in line with law and regulations,” he said. “There will be no uncontrolled weapons or other things in Belarus, and cannot be. Everything there is in Belarus will be managed by us here.”

On the same day, Russian envoy Vasily Nebenzya told the UN Security Council that Moscow develops ties with Belarus without violating its international non-proliferation commitments. It does not hand nuclear weapons over to Belarus, but upgrades its aircraft, trains crews, and builds a storage facility, the envoy said.

The West and Belarusian democratic forces denounced Russia’s nuclear plan, while China opposed using nuclear weapons or fighting nuclear wars.