Fitch says Belarus’ economy to contract in 2023

April 17, BPN. Fitch Ratings expects “further recession” with Belarus’ GDP dropping by 1.3 percent in 2023 and by 0.3 percent in 2024, its recent forecast says.

The analysts linked the expected slowdown in contraction to “continuing reorientation of trade flows and weak investment, with further adaption of businesses to sanctions.”

Inflation will remain “fairly high” at about 8.7 percent in 2023 and 9.5 percent in 2024, Fitch said, noting supply chain issues caused by Western sanctions.

The general government deficit is expected to widen from 0.2 percent of GDP in 2021 to 3.8 percent in 2022-2023, with government debt at 42.4 percent of GDP by the end of 2023, it added.

The analysts stressed high risks related to Belarusian authorities’ support of Russia’s war on Ukraine and Russian nuclear plans in Belarus.

Belarusian government projects a 3.8-percent economic growth for 2023 with inflation at about six percent.