Łukašenka’s poor health may prompt opposition to launch change process – pundit

May 15. BPN. Belarusian pro-democracy forces may start mobilizing supporters to launch changes, political analyst Valeryj Karbalevič told BPN commenting on Alaksandr Łukašenka’s absence.

Łukašenka’s real departure may trigger political transformation no matter who takes over, he added.

In this scenario, the opposition would need to legitimize its power claims which is only possible if it manages to dismantle the Łukašenka-centered public politics, he said.

“The political pendulum today is at the amplitude of dictatorship, crackdown and anti-Western policy and it cannot go any further,” Karbalevič said. Whoever comes next will have to swing it in the opposite direction to achieve social accord by releasing political prisoners and starting a dialogue with society, he noted.

New authorities would have to overcome the deep divide within the Belarusian society with compromises and negotiations as inevitable elements of the political process, the expert noted.

On May 9, Łukašenka attended the Victory Day parade at Moscow’s Red Square. Footage circulated by the Russian media shows that his arm was bandaged. He struggled to move around. He was driven to a wreath laying site, whereas the other Eurasian leaders arrived on foot, and skipped the “informal breakfast” hosted by Vladimir Putin.

In the evening, Łukašenka participated in a wreath laying ceremony at Victory Square in Minsk but stopped short of making a speech, which was unusual and occurred for the first time during his rule.

Łukašenka has not appeared in public since May 9.