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POZIRK+Belarus’ Coordination Council seeks relevance beyond symbolism
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Belarus-based relay systems that facilitated Russian drone attacks have suspended operations, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on June 24, suggesting that Minsk had fulfilled at least some of the conditions set by Kyiv.
“Whether they dismounted them or not, I frankly don’t know yet. But we are working on it, and I am closely following the situation and receiving daily reports. The fact is that the relay systems are not operational now,” he noted.
He added that Commander-in-Chief Oleksander Syrskyi and intelligence officials had reported that the relay systems had not been operating since June 22.
The Belarusian leader appears to have halted the operation of drone-control relay systems for fear that they might be targeted by Ukraine, which has already struck Russian energy infrastructure between the Urals and Moscow, as well as Saint Petersburg.
Tension eases before foreign trip
Most likely, Minsk used intelligence or military communication channels to assuage Kyiv’s concerns ahead of Alaksandar Łukašenka’s foreign trip. The Belarusian ruler is planning to meet his Russian counterpart in Moscow before traveling to an undisclosed destination, probably Indonesia.
Zelensky said earlier that such channels remained in operation.
Moscow’s consent obtained
How did Łukašenka persuade Putin to switch off the relay systems? It would have been reckless for him to do so without first obtaining the Russian president’s permission.
He may have used the same argument he cited in a recent interview with Al-Arabiya: Belarus is too vulnerable to Ukrainian drone attacks to take such risks.
He could also have argued that a hypothetical strike on the Mazyr refinery, located close to the Ukrainian border, would deprive Russia of additional fuel supplies. Furthermore, Moscow might need to deploy air-defense systems and troops to Belarus to protect its refineries.
At present, the opening of a Belarusian-Ukrainian front would be worse for Putin than for Ukraine.
Russia can scarcely find enough cannon fodder for its war against Ukraine, while mobilization would be an unpopular move ahead of the State Duma elections scheduled for September.
In the interview with Al-Arabiya, Łukašenka acknowledged, referring to a second front stretching more than 1,000 kilometers, that “we and the Russians would not be able to defend this section given the current development of the war.”
Therefore, Moscow and Minsk are not planning to attack Ukraine from Belarus, as they are already struggling to maintain their current defenses.
Indeed, Łukašenka has toned down his aggressive rhetoric in recent months, while Kyiv has become more assertive.
The Belarusian leader has maintained an alliance with Russia primarily to secure access to cheap energy and military protection rather than to participate in military operations aimed at seizing new territory.
Since Moscow’s security guarantees are no longer entirely reliable, he has maneuvered his way out of trouble despite losing face. This is preferable to exposing Belarusian refineries—and possibly his own residence—to Ukrainian drone attacks.
Empire would not let Belarus go
Minsk could still help save Łukašenka’s blushes by denying that relay systems were ever deployed in southern Belarus and by accusing Kyiv of spreading disinformation.
However, Łukašenka can hardly wriggle out of the precarious situation in which he finds himself. After issuing one ultimatum, Kyiv may put forward further demands, such as ending supplies of fuel and electronic components to the Russian army. Most likely, this is Ukraine’s strategy for now.
At some point, Putin may push back.
As a result, Łukašenka’s conversation with the Russian president is unlikely to be easy. It is difficult to escape the imperial grip into which he has allowed himself to drift over so many years.
Zelensky: Belarus-based drone control relay systems suspended operation
June 24, Pozirk. Belarus-based relay systems that facilitated Russian drone attacks have suspended operation, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said. “Whether they dismounted them or not, I, frankly speaking, don’t know yet. But we are working on it and I …
