January 28, Pozirk. The potential move of Belarusian opposition leader Śviatłana Cichanoŭskaja from Lithuania to Poland would have little impact on Polish security, a former Polish security official said, citing already extensive Belarusian and Russian intelligence activity in the country.
The Belarusian diaspora in Poland is already under close scrutiny by Belarusian intelligence services, Anna Grabowska-Siwiec, a retired Polish security officer, told Belsat on January 28.
“On the other hand, Lithuania’s security potential is much smaller than Poland’s. It is a small country exposed to considerable pressure from Belarus,” she said.
According to Grabowska-Siwiec, Poland arrests three to four Belarusians every year for working for Belarusian and Russian intelligence services. She is a former counterintelligence officer with Poland’s Internal Security Agency and currently lectures on foreign affairs at the University of Białystok.
She said the artificial migration crisis, incursions by balloons carrying smuggled cigarettes from Belarus, espionage and the infiltration of Belarusian agents into the diaspora are all elements of Alaksandar Łukašenka’s hybrid warfare against Poland.
However, she stressed that “this is not just a Polish-Belarusian war, but primarily a Russian-NATO war.” “It is Russia’s war against countries supporting Ukraine, involving cyberattacks and disinformation on their own territory. Both countries [Belarus and Russia] amplify each other’s actions,” she said.
“The case in point is comprehensive Belarusian-Russian operations. In a sense, Belarus is Russia’s proxy, carrying out certain actions in Moscow’s interests while simultaneously pursuing Łukašenka’s small goals,” Grabowska-Siwiec added.
