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Ukraine’s senior intelligence official: war cannot break out instantly via Belarus
Vadym Skibitsky
July 10, Pozirk. It is impossible for a war to break out instantly from Belarusian territory, Vadym Skibitsky, deputy head of the main intelligence directorate at Ukraine’s defense ministry, told apostrophe.ua.
Russians could deploy their troops to Belarus in about one week, but right now, there are no significant Russian forces in Belarus, he added.
Alaksandar Łukašenka does not want to be directly involved in the war, and the Belarusian army is not ready for such a scenario, Skibitsky noted. “Łukašenka understands that being drawn into the war, let alone Belarus’ direct participation in it, could be a disaster for the state,” he said.
Ukrainian intelligence obtained documents indicating that inspections conducted by the Belarusian defense ministry revealed significant shortcomings, suggesting the country’s armed forces remain far below the standard required to wage or effectively participate in a high-level conflict, the official said.
Skibitsky warned that Russia could use Belarusian territory without the consent of the country’s current authorities. He added that Russia has infrastructure in Belarus for deploying military equipment and command-and-control systems, which could enable more effective strikes on Ukraine.
Belarus has become heavily dependent on Russia, with more than 20 companies in the country’s defense industry now operating in cooperation with Moscow, he said, adding that “operational upgrades” are underway at facilities on Belarusian territory.
In February 2022, Russia started a full-scale war against Ukraine in which the Belarusian authorities supported the Kremlin, allowing Russian troops to attack Ukraine from Belarus on multiple occasions and supplying arms to Moscow.
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