Ukraine says Belarus unlikely to attack because Belarusians oppose it

June 20, BPN. The likelihood of Belarusian armed forces’ full-scale participation in the Russian war against Ukraine is not very high, because ordinary Belarusians do not support it, Andriy Yermak, head of the Ukrainian president’s office, told LB.ua.

Yermak also stressed the strategic importance of the fact that Belarus is not actively involved in the war as he commented on possible mechanisms to hold Belarus accountable for its actual complicity. Asked whether mechanisms exist, Yermak noted that “this is a very tricky situation.”

On June 15, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky ordered generals to check Ukrainian troops’ readiness to repel potential attacks in four of the country’s five regions bordering on Belarus.

On June 17, Alaksandr Łukašenka said that Belarus is not going to fight in Ukraine unless a “red line” is crossed. “As soon as you cross our border or target the Mazyr Oil Refinery (they had this a crazy idea), we will instantly retaliate,” he warned.

The authorities in Minsk allowed the Russian army to attack Ukraine from Belarus on February 24. Tensions at the Belarus-Ukraine border decreased after the Russian troops had been forced to retreat from northern Ukraine. Now Kyiv suspects that Belarusian troops’ ongoing drills might be part preparations for a possible attack on Ukraine. Minsk has denied any aggressive plans.