Ukrainian intelligence warns of continued threat of attacks from Belarus, rules out ground offensive

August 28, BPN. A threat of missile attacks from Belarus persists but there are not enough troops for a ground offensive, Vadym Skibitskyi from the Ukrainian defense ministry’s intelligence department told RBC-Ukraine.

He noted that one division of the Iskander missile system stationed in Belarus carried out attacks on Ukraine, while three divisions of S-400 and S-300 controlled the airspace: “We can see how actively they work, when S-400s cover [Russian] Tu-22 bombers that enter Belarusian airspace.”

According to Skibitskyi, Ukraine did not record any significant Russian troops build-up in Belarus, except for about 1,000 Russian servicemen with two permanent communication centers and several battalions of the Belarusian Armed Forces stationed along the borders. 

Skibitskyi concluded that the threat of a Russian land invasion from Belarus is low, yet warned that it could increase in the event of a “strong deployment of the land component.”

On February 24, Russia started a full-scale war against Ukraine. Authorities in Minsk deny Belarusian army troops’ involvement in combat operations on the Russian side. However, Belarus allowed Russian troops and weapons to move freely through the country, use its airspace, refuel and store military equipment and attack Ukraine from its territory.

A 20,000-strong grouping of Russian forces crossed into Ukraine from Belarus at the outset of the war, Alaksandr Łukašenka told AFP in an interview on July 21. Russian troops retreated from northern Ukraine later.