Belarus’ GDP to grow by 3.8%, inflation by 8% in 2023 – official forecast

October 26, BPN. Belarusian GDP is expected to grow by at least 3.8 percent in 2023, said Prime Minister Raman Hałoŭčanka at a government session focusing on 2023 budget estimates, economic forecasts and guidelines of monetary and credit policy.

Real income is projected to rise by 4.1 percent, real pay is to climb by 4.6 percent, while inflation is not expected to exceed eight percent, he added.

Growth in capital expenditures and exports by 22.3 and 5.5 percent, respectively, is expected to drive domestic demand, a key factor for the economic growth, Hałoŭčanka noted.

The government plans to implement 129 regional, 51 import-substituting and 14 integration projects worth 4.1 billion rubels, he added, stressing that the funds are available.

Authorities anticipate a $2.5 billion increase in foreign currency revenues in 2023, of which $1.4 billion would come from exports to Russia and $300 million, to China.

Spending on social programs is slated to increase by 17.5 percent; healthcare, by 16 percent; and education, by 19 percent, Hałoŭčanka said. Salaries in the public sector are projected to grow by 19.3 percent, pensions by 16.5 percent, and social benefits by 15.8 percent, he said.

Belarus’ GDP fell by 4.7 percent in January – September 2022 year on year, the National Statistical Committee (Belstat) reported. The government had projected economic growth of 2.9 percent for 2022. Consumer prices rose 14.76 percent year on year, whereas the government had expected inflation to be no higher than 6 percent this year.