EDB expects Belarusian GDP to shrink by 4.6 percent in 2022

December 13, BPN. The Belarusian economy will contract by 4.6 percent in 2022, the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) said in its recent macroeconomic report covering its six member states.

Russia’s GDP decline is not likely to exceed three percent, while Kazakhstan will maintain strong economic growth, EDB analysts said. Business activities in Armenia, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan are thriving amid the inflow of labor and financial resources, they added.

The EDB member states’ economies demonstrate a fairly high degree of resilience and adaptability to external economic shocks, the report stressed.

The Russian and Belarusian economies are likely to remain L-shaped in 2023-2024, which means a slow, gradual recovery will follow a significant decline, the EDB noted.

The readjustment of supply chains, persisting infrastructure constraints, a possible weakening of government incentives, and restrictions on technological imports may have long-lasting negative effects, the analysts warned.

The Belarusian economy might start recovering in 2023 with growth of 0.3 percent, while Russia is not expected to recover until 2024, the report noted.

The EDB expects a GDP increase of 3.7 percent in Kyrgyzstan, 4.2 percent in Armenia and Kazakhstan, and 6.5 percent in Tajikistan.

In January-October 2022, Belarusian GDP fell by 4.7 percent, despite a projected 2.9 percent growth. In November, the authorities projected growth of 3.8 percent for 2023.