Russia has not enough troops, equipment in Belarus for offensive against Ukraine

By Alaksandr Kłaskoŭski, BPN

The Russian and Belarusian group of forces has completed a coordination program upon its formation, Russian officers reported to Alaksandr Łukašenka on January 6. However, its strength is not enough for an attack, intelligence reports and observers say.

“We have a common cause,” the Belarusian leader said while meeting with Russian military officers at the Abuz-Lesnoŭski firing range near Baranavičy, Brest region.

Meanwhile, freight trains with Russian equipment have been spotted at several locations across Belarus. Some commentators say that Russia might be preparing for a new incursion into northern Ukraine from Belarus, noting that it may also draw Belarusian troops.

New assault cannot be ruled out

Alaksandr Valfovič, state secretary of the Security Council of Belarus, said that the joint group’s deployment was intended “to cool down hotheads in the West with its aggressive policy with regard to the Union State [of Belarus and Russia].” Belarusian officials stressed, however, that the group has been formed for defense.

Ukraine and the West have a reason for concern after Russian forces massed in Belarus last year under the pretext of defense maneuvers and then marched on Kyiv.

Russian troops that have arrived in Belarus are not enough to launch an offensive on Ukraine, a Belarusian military expert told The Viewer speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss the matter freely.

Woods and marshes make it difficult for any invaders to attack northern Ukraine now that approach routes have been mined and bridges have been destroyed, the source said.

The Russian military presence is primarily intended to fix Ukrainian forces in the north of the country, the source added.

It might take Russia six or more months to prepare properly for an offensive, the expert said, noting that Russia might attack western Ukraine to cut off European supply routes.

The Belarusian army has no more than 11,000 ground troops ready to be deployed for a hypothetical offensive, the source said. However, Minsk has to defend Belarus’ borders with NATO, and therefore it can realistically deploy no more than 6,000 troops.

To launch an offensive, Belarus would need to draft 40,000 to 50,000 reservists to bring dormant units up to strength, the expert added.

Training camp

Łukašenka’s visit to the Abuz-Lasnoŭski training ground was timed to coincide with the completion of a three-month training program by the first group of Russian draftees, Andrej Parotnikaŭ, of Belarus Security Blog, told The Viewer.

The group (about 10,000 troops based on media reports), is expected to leave, while a new batch is expected to arrive for training, he added. The Kremlin seems to have a deal with Minsk to use Belarus’ facilities for training soldiers, Parotnikaŭ said.

He noted that a new offensive from Belarus is possible in the first quarter this year to complement a major onslaught somewhere else, for instance on Kharkiv or Sumy.

But he said that Belarusian troops are unlikely to be involved, noting that “no one has been asking Łukašenka” to send his army to Ukraine.